ABSTRACT The quality of ensemble forecasts is significantly affected by sample quality. In this paper, the influence of sample quality on simulation results is analyzed by optimizing the distribution of ensemble members. As part of our research, simulated and observed tracks are compared; samples with smaller track errors are retained, and samples with larger track errors are eliminated in order to improve the overall quality of the ensemble forecast. The Weather and Research Forecasting model was used to simulate 11 tropical cyclones that occurred in the northwest Pacific to test the ability of our scheme to improve the forecast track of these cyclones. The results show that, in most cases, sample optimization effectively reduces the track error of tropical cyclones. Overall, the 12-hour, 24-hour, and 36-hour errors in the forecast track are reduced by 10.95 km (20.35%), 10.26 km (16.95%), and 10.1 km (14.71%), respectively. In addition, the forecast of tropical cyclone intensity was improved to a certain extent. Thus, it was confirmed through quantitative measurements that sample optimization based on the observed track improves the track prediction of tropical cyclones.

中文翻译：

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基于观测轨迹的集合预报样本优化模拟11个热带气旋研究

摘要 集合预报的质量受样本质量的显着影响。本文通过优化合奏成员的分布，分析样本质量对仿真结果的影响。作为我们研究的一部分，比较了模拟和观察到的轨迹；保留跟踪误差较小的样本，剔除跟踪误差较大的样本，以提高集合预报的整体质量。Weather and Research Forecasting 模型被用来模拟发生在西北太平洋的 11 个热带气旋，以测试我们的方案改进这些气旋预测轨迹的能力。结果表明，在大多数情况下，样本优化有效地降低了热带气旋的航迹误差。总的来说，12 小时制、24 小时制、预测轨迹的36小时误差分别减少10.95公里（20.35%）、10.26公里（16.95%）和10.1公里（14.71%）。此外，热带气旋强度预报也有一定程度的提高。因此，通过定量测量证实，基于观测轨迹的样本优化改进了热带气旋的轨迹预测。