Abstract Rebuilding fish populations worldwide is urgently needed, but socio-economic concerns often slow down or even prevent the process of rebuilding fish stocks. To address this concern we conduct an economic analysis of rebuilding six depleted Canadian fish stocks under different biological and management scenarios. Rebuilding scenario projections are based on underlying fish stock assessments and fish species’ life history traits, and thus are also influenced by uncertainties in these parameters. We find that rebuilding generates economic gains for five of the six fish stocks in the long term, with estimated economic gains under the most and least optimistic scenarios reaching up to 11 times and 5 times above the status quo, respectively. In most cases, fishery closure generates higher potential economic gains compared to a low-fishing strategy, regardless of the rate of fish stock recovery. Intergenerational discounting increases estimated economic benefits, thereby emphasizing the importance of taking a long-term perspective to fisheries rebuilding. Our results suggest that bearing the short-term economic costs of rebuilding can lead to future economic benefits, which in the long term are an improvement over maintaining the status quo.

中文翻译：

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评估重建加拿大枯竭鱼类种群的潜在经济效益

摘要 世界范围内迫切需要重建鱼类种群，但社会经济问题往往会减慢甚至阻止重建鱼类种群的进程。为了解决这个问题，我们对在不同的生物和管理方案下重建六个枯竭的加拿大鱼类种群进行了经济分析。重建情景预测基于潜在的鱼类种群评估和鱼类的生活史特征，因此也受到这些参数不确定性的影响。我们发现，从长远来看，重建为 6 种鱼类中的 5 种带来了经济收益，在最乐观和最不乐观的情况下，估计的经济收益分别比现状高出 11 倍和 5 倍。在大多数情况下，与低捕捞策略相比，关闭渔业会产生更高的潜在经济收益，而不管鱼类种群的恢复速度如何。代际贴现增加了估计的经济效益，从而强调了从长远角度看待渔业重建的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，承担重建的短期经济成本可以带来未来的经济利益，从长远来看，这是对维持现状的改善。