Atmospheric pollutants and environmental indicators are often used to reconstruct historic atmospheric pollution from peat, as it accumulates over time by decomposing plant material, thus recording a history of air pollution. In the present study, three key parameters related to the peat bogs’ surface wetness dynamics in European Russia during the Holocene were investigated using modern statistical analysis. These parameters are: (i) the water table depth (WTD) in relation to the surface, which is reconstructed based on the community structure of the subfossil testate amoeba assemblages; (ii) the peat humification estimated as absorption of alkaline extract that directly reflects moisture at which the peat was formed; (iii) the Climate Moisture Index (CMI) and the Aridity Index derived from pollen-based reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation and classifying moisture conditions as the ratio between available annual precipitation and potential land surface evapotranspiration. All these parameters provide useful information about the paleoclimate (atmospheric moisture component) dynamics. High values of WTD and peat humification appear to comply with Gutenberg–Richter law. It is noteworthy that this law also seems to reproduce the high values of the modeled climate moisture and aridity indices. The validity of this new result is checked by replacing “conventional time” with “natural time”. On this basis, a new nowcasting tool is developed to more accurately estimate the average waiting time for the extreme values of these climate parameters. This will help to understand climate variability better to address emerging development needs and priorities by implementing empirical studies of the interactions between climatic effects, mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable growth.

中文翻译：

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基于古气候资料的新型气候临近预报工具

大气污染物和环境指标通常用于重建泥炭的历史大气污染，因为泥炭通过分解植物材料随着时间的推移而积累，从而记录了空气污染的历史。在本研究中，使用现代统计分析研究了与全新世期间俄罗斯欧洲泥炭沼泽表面湿度动态相关的三个关键参数。这些参数是： (i) 相对于地表的地下水位深度 (WTD)，这是基于亚化石遗嘱变形虫组合的群落结构重建的；(ii) 泥炭腐殖化估计为碱提取物的吸收，直接反映泥炭形成时的水分；(iii) 气候湿度指数 (CMI) 和干旱指数源自基于花粉的年平均温度和降水重建，并将湿度条件分类为可用年降水量与潜在地表蒸散量之间的比率。所有这些参数都提供了有关古气候（大气水分成分）动态的有用信息。WTD 和泥炭腐殖化的高值似乎符合 Gutenberg-Richter 定律。值得注意的是，该定律似乎也重现了模拟气候湿度和干旱指数的高值。通过将“常规时间”替换为“自然时间”来检查这一新结果的有效性。以这个为基础，开发了一种新的临近预报工具，以更准确地估计这些气候参数极端值的平均等待时间。通过对气候影响、减缓、适应和可持续增长之间的相互作用进行实证研究，这将有助于更好地了解气候变化，以解决新出现的发展需求和优先事项。