This paper presents the ‘process blocks build‐up estimating’ method for the capital cost estimation of biorefineries at Technology Readiness Levels 2 to 3 with a −50% to +100% accuracy, corresponding to a Class 5 estimate. Through systematic cost modeling, the method introduces a modular approach to cost estimation by breaking down a biorefinery into its major process blocks and using separate cost power functions. Suitable cost parameters (exponents and reference capital costs) for 11 biochemical, chemical and thermochemical biorefinery types are developed, as well as reference block efficiencies for estimating the costs of biorefineries within and beyond the state of the art. A framework for uncertainty modeling is also proposed to decide on contingencies for a biorefinery investment. The cost models are addressed to the biorefinery community, from experimental chemists to process engineers and decision makers, to assist them in selecting optimal pathways and budgeting new projects. The modular estimation approach is illustrated with a simple example on a biodiesel plant and a first‐of‐a‐kind polyhydroxybuturate (PHB) plant. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

中文翻译：

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一种超越现有技术的快速估算生物精炼厂资本成本的方法

本文介绍了在技术准备水平为2至3级时，生物炼油厂的资本成本估算的“过程块累积估算”方法，其准确度为-50％至+ 100％，对应于5级估算。通过系统的成本建模，该方法通过将生物精炼厂分解为主要流程块并使用单独的成本幂函数，引入了一种模块化的成本估算方法。已开发出适用于11种生化，化学和热化学生物精炼厂类型的合适成本参数（指数和参考资本成本），以及用于估算现有技术水平之内和之外的生物精炼厂成本的参考模块效率。还提出了不确定性建模的框架，以决定生物炼油厂投资的突发事件。成本模型是针对生物炼制界的，从实验化学家到工艺工程师和决策者，以帮助他们选择最佳途径和预算新项目。在一个生物柴油厂和首个聚羟基丁酸酯（PHB）厂上，用一个简单的例子说明了模块化估算方法。©2020作者。工业化学学会和John Wiley＆Sons Ltd出版的生物燃料，生物产品和生物精制