Abstract Environmental conditions experienced by animals constrain their energy acquisition and its subsequent allocation to growth and reproduction, which ultimately contributes to population dynamics. Understanding how environmental conditions affect these physiological processes is therefore important for predicting how threatened species will respond to altered food and temperature conditions. Here we use a mechanistic modelling approach based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to demonstrate that changing food availability has a strong impact on growth and reproduction for a Western Australian population of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas), particularly in scenarios with simulated marine heatwaves. Models predicted increasing time between nesting years in scenarios of decreasing food availability. Furthermore, increased frequency of marine heatwaves reduced reproductive output with the number of eggs a female produced in its lifetime predicted to be approximately 20% lower when heatwaves occurred every five years compared to every 20 years. Our predictions suggest that frequent marine heatwaves could have similar adverse effects to long-term decreases in food availability. In all scenarios, direct impacts of changes in temperature were less pronounced and suggest that the strongest impacts of the increasing temperatures of climate change will be mediated through food availability. The approach demonstrated here provides a strong foundation for understanding how the Ningaloo C. mydas population will respond to climate change, and can be refined as new physiological, behavioural, and environmental data become available.

中文翻译：

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在气候变化和海洋热浪情景下模拟绿海龟 (Chelonia mydas) 的生长和繁殖

摘要 动物经历的环境条件限制了它们的能量获取及其随后对生长和繁殖的分配，这最终有助于种群动态。因此，了解环境条件如何影响这些生理过程对于预测受威胁物种将如何应对改变的食物和温度条件非常重要。在这里，我们使用基于动态能量收支 (DEB) 理论的机械建模方法来证明，不断变化的食物供应对西澳大利亚绿海龟 (Chelonia mydas) 种群的生长和繁殖有很大影响，特别是在模拟海洋环境中热浪。在食物供应减少的情况下，模型预测筑巢年份之间的时间会增加。此外，海洋热浪频率的增加会降低生殖产量，与每 20 年相比，每五年发生一次热浪时，雌性在其一生中产生的卵子数量预计会减少约 20%。我们的预测表明，频繁的海洋热浪可能会对食物供应的长期减少产生类似的不利影响。在所有情景中，温度变化的直接影响都不那么明显，这表明气候变化温度升高的最大影响将通过粮食供应来调节。这里展示的方法为了解 Ningaloo C. mydas 种群如何应对气候变化提供了坚实的基础，并且可以随着新的生理、行为和环境数据的可用而进行改进。