This study examined the effects of product price increases on metal consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and product sales via changes in the product replacement decisions of consumers. A dynamic discrete choice model was applied to air conditioners (ACs) in Japan to determine these effects when product price is increased by from 5% to 30% in 5% increments. To illustrate, a 5% increase in air conditioners was shown to reduce consumption of iron, copper, and aluminum by six, one, and two thousand tons, respectively, while increasing GHG emissions by 506 kt-CO₂ eq. and decreasing product sales by 56 billion Japanese yen. Thus, product price increases for ACs led to a reduction in material consumption while decreasing product sales. The effect on GHG emissions depends on the level of the product price increase. These interactions suggest that consumers will use products longer so long as the value of the product's enhanced durability and longevity matches the increased price of the product. Efforts to improve product durability and longevity, however, will require that AC companies explore new business models in order to cope with the anticipated decrease in product sales as the transition to a circular economy continues.

这项研究通过改变消费者的产品更换决策，研究了产品价格上涨对金属消耗，温室气体（GHG）排放和产品销售的影响。当产品价格以5％为增量从5％增加到30％时，将动态离散选择模型应用于日本的空调（AC），以确定这些影响。为了说明这一点，表明空调增加5％可使铁，铜和铝的消耗量分别减少六吨，一吨和两千吨，同时温室气体排放量增加506 kt-CO _2。eq。产品销售额减少560亿日元。因此，AC的产品价格上涨导致材料消耗减少，同时产品销售减少。对温室气体排放的影响取决于产品价格上涨的水平。这些相互作用表明，只要产品增强的耐用性和寿命的价值与产品的价格上涨相匹配，消费者就将使用更长的产品。但是，为提高产品的耐用性和寿命而做出的努力将要求AC公司探索新的商业模式，以应对随着向循环经济过渡而预期的产品销售下降的情况。