Biochemicals constitute a key sector in the bioeconomy, but their future expansion depends on biomass availability. This study employs an integrated global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach to quantify the impacts on land-use change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and socioeconomic indicators, when reducing biomass conversion costs for global biochemical production by 1.5% annually until 2050. Global demand for crop- and forest-based feedstock by the chemical industry increases sharply in 2050, e.g. by 327% for wheat; driving up agro-food prices, e.g. by 3.5% for oilseeds and 3.9% for sugarcane in Brazil. Chemical output decreases in countries that rely on imported biomass for biochemical production, such as Germany, France or the United States; while it increases, for instance, in Brazil and Australia, which draw mainly on domestic feedstock. Increased biomass demand entails significant natural forest cover loss across South America and Asia, and, to a lesser extent, in North America. Associated GHG from global carbon stock losses outweigh those from fossil fuel savings, increasing GHG emissions globally by 107 Mt in 2050, relative to the baseline. Results suggest that R&D investments in bio-based sectors should be complemented with coherent policies to prevent deforestation and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals.

生化产品构成了生物经济的关键领域，但其未来的扩展取决于生物质的可获得性。这项研究采用综合的全球可计算一般均衡（CGE）建模方法来量化对土地利用变化，温室气体（GHG）排放和社会经济指标的影响，直到2050年，全球生化生产的生物质转化成本每年减少1.5％。 2050年，全球化学工业对农作物和森林原料的需求将急剧增长，例如小麦增长了327％。推动农业食品价格上涨，例如巴西的油籽价格上涨了3.5％，甘蔗价格上涨了3.9％。在依靠进口生物质进行生化生产的国家，例如德国，法国或美国，化学物质产量下降；例如在巴西和澳大利亚，主要依靠国内原料。生物量需求的增加导致整个南美和亚洲以及北美（在较小程度上）的天然林覆盖率下降。与全球碳储量损失相关的温室气体排放量超过了化石燃料的节约量，相对于基准线，到2050年全球温室气体排放量将增加107吨。结果表明，在生物基部门的研发投资应辅之以连贯的政策，以防止森林砍伐和对可持续发展目标的负面影响。相对于基线。结果表明，在生物基部门的研发投资应辅之以连贯的政策，以防止森林砍伐和对可持续发展目标的负面影响。相对于基线。结果表明，在生物基部门的研发投资应辅之以连贯的政策，以防止森林砍伐和对可持续发展目标的负面影响。