Offshore wind is an established technology in Europe and Asia, but it has not yet gained market share in the United States. There is, however, increasing interest in offshore wind development in many coastal regions of the United States. As offshore wind grows in those regions it will displace existing and future electric generation assets, which will lead to changes in the emissions from the electric power sector. This research explores combinations of two electric sector drivers, offshore wind capital costs and carbon dioxide (CO₂) caps, to measure the changes in the energy mix and quantify offshore wind’s impact on electric sector emissions. An energy system modeling approach is applied, using a nested parametric sensitivity analysis, to generate and explore potential energy futures and analyze the air quality and greenhouse gas emissions benefits of offshore wind as an energy source. The analysis shows that offshore wind capacity was added due to cost reductions more than CO₂ cap stringency, though both increased capacity additions. Capacity varied more by CO₂ cap stringency at higher prices and less at lower prices. CO₂ mitigation led to reductions in all five emissions investigated, regardless of offshore wind cost. Offshore wind-specific reductions were only consistent across all CO₂ caps for CO₂ and methane (CH₄), though offshore wind-specific reductions were found for all emissions in the absence of CO₂ caps. Results are presented nationally, analyzing the differences in adoption of offshore wind and how this technology provides a broader range of emission reduction options for the power sector.

海上风电在欧洲和亚洲是一项成熟的技术，但在美国尚未获得市场份额。然而，美国许多沿海地区对海上风电开发的兴趣越来越大。随着这些地区海上风电的发展，它将取代现有和未来的发电资产，这将导致电力部门的排放发生变化。这项研究探讨了两个电力部门驱动因素的组合、海上风电资本成本和二氧化碳 (CO ₂) 上限，以衡量能源结构的变化并量化海上风电对电力部门排放的影响。应用能源系统建模方法，使用嵌套参数敏感性分析，生成和探索潜在的能源未来，并分析海上风能作为能源的空气质量和温室气体排放效益。分析表明，海上风电容量的增加是由于成本降低而不是 CO ₂上限严格，尽管两者都增加了容量增加。在较高价格时，容量因 CO ₂上限严格性而变化较大，而在较低价格时则较少。CO ₂无论海上风电成本如何，减缓措施都导致所调查的所有五种排放量均有所减少。海上风电特定减排量仅在CO ₂和甲烷 (CH ₄ ) 的所有 CO ₂上限中一致，尽管在没有 CO ₂上限的情况下发现所有排放量的海上风电特定减排量。结果在全国范围内呈现，分析了海上风电采用的差异以及该技术如何为电力部门提供更广泛的减排选择。