Abstract This study was designed to evaluate the spatiotemporal performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in the historical simulation and future projections of minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and mean temperature (Tmean) over South Asia (SA) during global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC targets under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is worth mentioning that the present study is the first of its kind to use such a large number of CMIP5 models to project future changes in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean over SA using three different warming thresholds. The results show that CSIRO–MK3–6–0, MIROC–ESM–CHEM, CNRM–CM5, CCSM4, and MRI–CGCM3 models relatively performed better with a consistent and accurate spatiotemporal simulation of Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean over SA. In terms of projected changes, Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean show a dominating and consistent warming pattern over SA with stronger intensity in higher latitude than mid–low latitudes under 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC warming thresholds. The northwestern (eastern) regions of SA will witness greater (least) warming in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean under all warming thresholds in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the central and southern parts of SA will experience a moderate increase in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean under all warming targets. The uneven and intensified patterns of Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean may result in temperature extremes, which would pose potential risks to the local population. Therefore, more attention should be paid on the regional and local perspectives to estimate the adverse impacts of these extremes under different global warming targets. We further suggest to project future changes in climate extremes over SA under different warming levels, which will be helpful in climate change adaptation and mitigation over the study region.

中文翻译：

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CMIP5 模型的评估和南亚在 1.5 C、2 C 和 3 C 的全球变暖下预计的温度变化

摘要 本研究旨在评估耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 模型在南亚 (Tmin)、最大值 (Tmax) 和平均温度 (Tmean) 的历史模拟和未来预测中的时空性能。 SA) 在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下全球变暖 1.5 oC、2 oC 和 3 oC 目标期间。值得一提的是，本研究首次使用如此大量的 CMIP5 模型来预测未来 Tmin、Tmax 和 Tmean 在 SA 上的变化，使用三个不同的变暖阈值。结果表明，CSIRO-MK3-6-0、MIROC-ESM-CHEM、CNRM-CM5、CCSM4 和 MRI-CGCM3 模型相对表现更好，对 Tmin、Tmax 和 Tmean 的时空模拟与 SA 一致且准确。就预计的变化而言，Tmin、Tmax、和 Tmean 在 1.5 oC、2 oC 和 3 oC 变暖阈值下显示出主导和一致的变暖模式，在高纬度地区比中低纬度地区强度更强。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景中，在所有变暖阈值下，SA 的西北部（东部）地区的 Tmin、Tmax 和 Tmean 将出现更大（最小）变暖。此外，在所有变暖目标下，南澳中部和南部的 Tmin、Tmax 和 Tmean 都将适度增加。Tmin、Tmax 和 Tmean 的不均匀和强化模式可能导致极端温度，这将对当地人口构成潜在风险。因此，在不同的全球变暖目标下估计这些极端事件的不利影响应更多地关注区域和地方的角度。