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Future changes in precipitation extremes during northeast monsoon over south peninsular India
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03308-y
K. Koteswara Rao , Ashwini Kulkarni , Savita Patwardhan , B. Vinodh Kumar , T. V. Lakshmi Kumar

It is well recognized that the global climate has been warming and it can have adverse regional impacts in the future. Besides producing changes in mean climate, global warming can also substantially alters the weather and climate extremes. Considering the impact of weather extremes on agriculture as well as water resource management in an agrarian country like India, present study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes in northeast monsoon season (October–November–December) over south peninsular India based on statistically downscaled high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) datasets. This NEX-GDDP dataset simulates the mean rainfall reasonably well. There may be an increase in precipitation in near (5% under RCP 4.5 and 11% under RCP 8.5) and far future (21% and 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively). Future climate projections indicate that both the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in most parts of the south peninsular India may increase under both the warming scenarios during northeast monsoon season.



中文翻译:

印度南部半岛东北季风期间极端降水的未来变化

众所周知,全球气候在变暖,将来可能对区域产生不利影响。除了使平均气候发生变化外,全球变暖还可以大大改变天气和极端气候条件。考虑到极端天气对像印度这样的农业大国的农业以及水资源管理的影响,本研究旨在根据统计缩小的尺度,对印度南部半岛东北季风季节(10月至11月至12月)未来极端降水的变化进行特征分析。高分辨率的NASA地球交换全球每日缩减投影(NEX-GDDP)数据集。这个NEX-GDDP数据集可以很好地模拟平均降雨量。近期(RCP 4.5下为5%,RCP 8.5下为11%)和远期(RCP4下为21%和38%)的降水量可能会增加。5和RCP 8.5)。未来的气候预测表明,在东北季风季节的两种变暖情况下,印度南部半岛大部分地区的极端降水强度和频率都可能增加。

更新日期:2020-07-05
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