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Increasing trends in regional heatwaves.
Nature Communications ( IF 16.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-03 , DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7
S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick 1 , S C Lewis 2
Affiliation  

Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.



中文翻译:

区域热浪的趋势在增加。

热浪的强度,频率和持续时间都增加了,随着全球变暖的加剧,这些趋势预计会恶化。了解区域热浪趋势对其所影响的生物物理和人类系统具有至关重要的意义。迄今为止,所采用的度量范围,基础数据集和所检查的时间段阻碍了对区域观测到的变化的全面评估。在这里,我们使用伯克利地球温度数据集和关键的热浪指标,系统地检查了区域和全球观测到的热浪趋势。在几乎所有地区,热波频率都显示出最快,最明显的变化。自1950年代以来,几乎所有地方的累积热量测量值都显着增加,主要是受热浪天的推动。热浪频率的趋势,自1950年代以来,持续时间和累积热量都在加速增长,并且由于变化的巨大影响,我们建议对区域趋势进行数十年评估。我们的结果在了解影响所必需的时空尺度上,提供了可比较的区域观测到的热浪趋势。

更新日期:2020-07-03
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