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Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease
Frontiers in Physics ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-22 , DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00276
Martin Kröger , Reinhard Schlickeiser

The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave is rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time, it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows us to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors, such as doubling times and reproduction factors, currently in use to judge the lockdowns and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors, including basic reproduction numbers.



中文翻译:

高斯加倍时间和COVID-19大流行病的繁殖因子

第一个电晕大流行波的时间演化的高斯模型在估计峰值时间,所需设备数量以及预测衰落时间方面很有用。同时,它可能是最简单的分析易处理模型,可让我们定量预测大流行期间感染和死亡的时间演变。根据目前用于判断锁定和旨在防止病毒传播的其他措施的各种描述符(例如,倍增时间和繁殖因子),我们特此提供两个相关参数之间的精确和简单近似关系。高斯模型(峰值时间和宽度),两种形式的倍增时间的瞬态行为以及三种再生因子的变体,包括基本再生数。

更新日期:2020-07-03
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