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Assessing future water stress scenarios over six nuclear power plant locations of India through downscaled CMIP5 models
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-03 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03278-1
Javed Akhter , Lalu Das , Argha Deb

The present study has assessed the possible water stress scenarios over six nuclear power plant locations (inland plants at Kakrapar, Kota, and Narora and coastal plants at Kodankulam, Kalpakkam, and Tarapur) of India based on downscaled climatic products from 12 coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Firstly, statistically downscaled scenarios over power plant locations for water temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and sea surface temperature (SST) have been developed using various statistical downscaling methods. Secondly, the water stress has been quantified by formulating a multivariate standardized water stress index (MSWSI) based on water temperature and freshwater availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) over inland plants and a univariate index from the SST for coastal plants. Results have indicated that three inland power plants are not expecting any scarcity of freshwater availability. However, they have been projected to face high to severe water stress from middle to end of the century due to a higher warming rate of water temperature under global warming conditions. Similarly, three coastal plants have also been projected to prevail high to severe water stress through enhanced SST warming. Therefore, the efficiency and productivity of the nuclear plants may reduce under changing climatic conditions.



中文翻译:

通过缩小规模的CMIP5模型评估印度六个核电站位置的未来水资源压力情景

本研究基于12个耦合模型间的降尺度气候产品,评估了印度6个核电站位置(喀喇昆仑,哥打和纳罗拉的内陆工厂以及Kodankulam,卡尔帕卡姆和塔拉普尔的沿海工厂)可能出现的水压力情景。比较项目5(CMIP5)模拟。首先,已经使用各种统计缩减方法开发了电厂位置的水温,降水量,蒸散量和海面温度(SST)的统计缩减方案。其次,通过基于内陆植物的水温和淡水可利用量(降水量减去蒸散量)和沿海植物的SST的单变量指数,通过制定多元标准化水胁迫指数(MSWSI)来量化水分胁迫。结果表明,三个内陆发电厂预计淡水供应不会短缺。然而,由于全球变暖条件下水温的升高速度,预计从本世纪中叶到本世纪末它们将面临高到严重的水分胁迫。同样,还预计通过增强SST变暖,三种沿海植物在高到严重的水分胁迫下将普遍存在。因此,在变化的气候条件下,核电站的效率和生产率可能会降低。还预计通过增强SST变暖,三种沿海植物在高到严重的水分胁迫中将占优势。因此,在变化的气候条件下,核电站的效率和生产率可能会降低。还计划通过增强的SST变暖,使三座沿海植物在高到严重的水分胁迫下普遍存在。因此,在变化的气候条件下,核电站的效率和生产率可能会降低。

更新日期:2020-07-03
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