The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.

中文翻译：

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“一带一路”倡议的时空演变和决定因素：最大熵重力模型方法

空间交互模型是通过模拟空间流动来探索“一带一路”倡议（BRI）固有的地理差异的有效方式。传统的引力模型隐含了平衡点的假设，而没有提及何时或如何实现它。本文基于最大熵（MaxEnt）理论建立了动态​​引力模型，以估计和监测双边关系的互联强度和动态特征。为了检测互连强度的决定因素，应用Geodetector方法从五个维度识别和评估空间网络的决定因素。实证研究清楚地表明了一个异质和非圆形的空间结构。时空演化的主要驱动力是外商直接投资、旅游和铁路基础设施建设，而不同次区域的决定因素表现出明显的空间分异。东南亚国家是典型的多岛地区，航空基础设施发挥着更重要的作用。北亚和中亚国家将石油作为支柱产业，电力和港口设施对互联互通的影响更大。虽然西亚国家主要受铁路基础设施的影响，但东欧国家已经拥有相对强大的基础设施，关税政策提供了更大的推动力。北亚和中亚国家将石油作为支柱产业，电力和港口设施对互联互通的影响更大。虽然西亚国家主要受铁路基础设施的影响，但东欧国家已经拥有相对强大的基础设施，关税政策提供了更大的推动力。北亚和中亚国家将石油作为支柱产业，电力和港口设施对互联互通的影响更大。虽然西亚国家主要受铁路基础设施的影响，但东欧国家已经拥有相对强大的基础设施，关税政策提供了更大的推动力。