Optical turbulence greatly impacts the range and quality of astronomical observations. Advanced knowledge of the expected atmospheric optical turbulence provides important guidance that helps astronomers decide which instrument to schedule and enables them to optimize the adaptive optics technology that improves image resolution. Along with forecasts of weather conditions, prediction of the optical observing quality on the Maunakea summit has been a goal for the Maunakea Weather Center (MKWC) since its inception more than 20 yr ago. Forecasting optical turbulence, and its derivative, ‘seeing’, has proven to be quite challenging because optical turbulence is too small and complex to directly capture with a regional weather model. Fortunately, the permanent installation of a Differential Image Motion Monitor (DIMM) and Multi-Aperture Scintillation Sensor (MASS) at the summit of Maunakea has made seeing observations available during the last decade, providing valuable feedback to the MKWC. This paper summarizes the experience at MKWC in anticipating optical turbulence for the summit of Maunakea accrued through years of daily operational forecasting, and continuous comparison between MKWC official forecasts, model guidance, and observational measures of seeing. Access to a decade seeing observations has allowed quantification the factors that impact seeing, including wind shear, atmospheric stability patterns, and optical turbulence, and to document the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations in seeing. Consequently, the combination of experience gained, and custom model guidance has led to more accurate seeing forecasts (rms errors averaging <0.25 arcsec since 2012) for the Maunakea astronomical observatories.

中文翻译：

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毛纳基亚天文台的天气预报

光学湍流极大地影响了天文观测的范围和质量。对预期的大气光学湍流的高级了解提供了重要的指导，可帮助天文学家确定要安排哪种仪器，并使他们能够优化可提高图像分辨率的自适应光学技术。自20年前成立以来，对Maunakea气象中心（MKWC）的目标就是与对天气状况的预测相结合，对Maunakea峰会的光学观测质量进行预测。事实证明，对光学湍流及其派生的“看见”进行预测非常具有挑战性，因为光学湍流太小且太复杂，无法用区域天气模型直接捕获。幸好，在毛纳基亚（Maunakea）峰会上永久性安装了差动图像运动监视器（DIMM）和多孔径闪烁传感器（MASS），这使得过去十年间可以看到观测资料，从而为MKWC提供了宝贵的反馈。本文总结了MKWC在通过数年的日常运行预测积累的毛纳基亚峰顶光学湍流方面的经验，并对MKWC官方预测，模型指导和观测观测方法进行了连续比较。获得十年观景观测资料，可以量化影响观景的因素，包括风切变，大气稳定模式和光学湍流，并记录观景的季节和季节内变化。因此，结合所获得的经验，