Aiming at solving a typical problem of past research using accident experience statistics of being unable to adapt to changing traffic flows, this paper provides an evaluation method of the risk of vehicle rear-end collisions at red-light-camera (RLC) intersections based on theoretical probabilities. Taking advantage of trajectory data of vehicles at the two similar intersections, which are Cao’an Road and Lvyuan Road with RLCs and Cao’an Road and Anhong Road without RLCs in Shanghai, a binary logit (BL) model of stop-and-go decision-making is established. Using the model and adjusting the headway and potential travel time, we can perform simulation and analysis of rear-end collisions. The result shows that this method is feasible to analyse the influence of RLCs on rear-end collisions. The analysis indicates that RLCs can cause higher speeds for vehicles passing the RLC intersection and more abnormal driving behaviors, which increase the difficulty of stop-and-go decision-making. RLCs do not always lead to an increase of rear-end collisions. For vehicles close to or far from intersection at the decision-making time, RLCs will significantly reduce the possibility of rear-end collisions; however, for vehicles in the potential travel time of 2 s∼3 s, RLCs will increase the probability of rear-end collisions.

中文翻译：

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交叉口车辆追尾事故风险分析

为了解决以往无法适应交通流量变化的事故经验统计的典型问题，本文提出了一种基于红绿灯（RLC）交叉口的车辆追尾事故风险评估方法。理论概率。利用上海两个类似路口的车辆轨迹数据，即具有RLC的曹安路和绿园路，以及不具有RLC的曹安路和安宏路，建立了停停走走的二进制logit（BL）模型决策制定。使用该模型并调整行进距离和潜在的行驶时间，我们可以进行模拟和分析追尾事故。结果表明，该方法对分析RLC对追尾碰撞的影响是可行的。分析表明，RLC会导致通过RLC交叉路口的车辆具有更高的速度，并且会导致更多异常驾驶行为，从而增加了走走停停决策的难度。RLC并不总是导致后端冲突的增加。对于在决策时接近或远离交叉路口的车辆，RLC将大大减少追尾事故的可能性；但是，对于潜在行驶时间为2 s〜3 s的车辆，RLC将增加追尾事故的可能性。RLC将大大减少追尾事故的可能性；但是，对于潜在行驶时间为2 s〜3 s的车辆，RLC将增加追尾事故的可能性。RLC将大大减少追尾事故的可能性；但是，对于潜在行驶时间为2 s〜3 s的车辆，RLC将增加追尾事故的可能性。