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Using generalized additive models to investigate the environmental effects on pipe failure in clean water networks
npj Clean Water ( IF 11.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 , DOI: 10.1038/s41545-020-0077-3
Neal Andrew Barton , Timothy Stephen Farewell , Stephen Henry Hallett

Predicting pipe failures using statistical modelling benefits from detailed knowledge of the conditions and circumstances which influence such failures. Incorporating this knowledge into model building improves failure predictions. In this study, we model weather, soil and hydrogeological variables in a generalized additive model for five common pipe materials separately, using partial dependence plots to understand the partial effects of each variable on pipe failure. We show how severe temperatures are associated with high pipe failure. Cold temperatures and air frost and their interaction with soils represent the key factors for pipe failures during the winter for metal pipes. Warm temperatures, high soil moisture deficit and soil movement results in higher pipe failures in asbestos cement pipes during the summer. Warm temperatures, ground movement and soil wash out, and water demand are key factors for polyvinyl chloride pipe failure during the summer. Frost is a key factor influencing polyethylene pipes during winter. An understanding of the physical principals concerning pipe failures can enable the development of more accurate models, guiding network management plans to help reduce asset leakage through appropriate interventions.



中文翻译:

使用广义加性模型研究清洁水管网对管道故障的环境影响

使用统计建模预测管道故障的原因是对影响此类故障的条件和环境的详细了解。将这些知识纳入模型构建可以改善故障预测。在这项研究中,我们分别使用五种依赖关系图来了解每种变量对管道故障的局部影响,分别在五种常见管道材料的通用添加模型中对天气,土壤和水文地质变量进行建模。我们显示出严酷的温度与高管道故障相关联。低温和空气霜冻以及它们与土壤的相互作用是导致金属管道冬季管道故障的关键因素。夏季,高温,高土壤水分亏缺和土壤运动会导致石棉水泥管中更高的管子故障率。温暖的温度 地面运动和土壤冲刷,以及需水量是夏季聚氯乙烯管道故障的关键因素。霜冻是影响冬季聚乙烯管道的关键因素。对有关管道故障的物理原理的理解可以开发更准确的模型,指导网络管理计划,以通过适当的干预措施来帮助减少资产泄漏。

更新日期:2020-07-01
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