Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using the slip history of the Cascadia subduction between 2007 and 2017, during which slow earthquakes have repeatedly ruptured multiple segments. We characterize the system dynamics using embedding theory and extreme value theory. The analysis reveals a low-dimensional (<5) nonlinear chaotic system rather than a stochastic system. We calculate properties of the underlying attractor like its correlation and instantaneous dimension, instantaneous persistence, and metric entropy. We infer that the system has a predictability horizon of the order of days weeks. For the better resolved segments, the onset of large slip events can be correctly forecasted by high values of the instantaneous dimension. Longer-term deterministic prediction seems intrinsically impossible. Regular earthquakes might similarly be predictable but with a limited predictable horizon of the order of their durations.

像常规地震一样，慢速地震是由不稳定的摩擦滑移引起的。它们几乎不打滑，因此可以经常重复。我们使用2007年至2017年间卡斯卡迪亚俯冲的滑动历史来评估其可预测性，在此期间缓慢的地震多次破裂了多个分段。我们使用嵌入理论和极值理论来刻画系统动力学。分析揭示了低维（<5）非线性混沌系统，而不是随机系统。我们计算潜在吸引子的属性，例如其相关性和瞬时维数，瞬时持久性和度量熵。我们推断该系统的可预测性范围为数周至数周。为了更好地解决细分，大滑移事件的发生可以通过瞬时维的高值正确预测。长期的确定性预测似乎本质上是不可能的。类似地，常规地震可能是可预测的，但其持续时间的可预测范围有限。