当前位置: X-MOL 学术Earths Future › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-29 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001552
John W. Nielsen‐Gammon 1 , Jay L. Banner 2, 3 , Benjamin I. Cook 4, 5 , Darrel M. Tremaine 2, 3 , Corinne I. Wong 3, 6 , Robert E. Mace 7 , Huilin Gao 8 , Zong‐Liang Yang 2 , Marisa Flores Gonzalez 9 , Richard Hoffpauir 10 , Tom Gooch 11 , Kevin Kloesel 12
Affiliation  

Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer‐season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought nonstationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long‐range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate‐related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short‐ and long‐term, stakeholder‐specific adaptive planning.

中文翻译:

气候变化对德克萨斯州水资源的空前干旱挑战:研究人员和利益相关者需要了解什么?

远程水规划因21世纪迅速变化的因素(包括气候,人口和用水)而变得复杂。在这里,我们分析德克萨斯州的气候因素和干旱预测,以此作为跨过干旱梯度的多样化社会的一个例子,以检验这些预测如何最好地满足水资源利益相关者的需求。我们发现,气候模型在预测21世纪德克萨斯州东部和西部地区夏季土壤水分的干燥以及减少水库供应方面具有较强的鲁棒性。此外,预测表明,在21世纪下半叶,甚至包括大旱灾在内的最近1000年中最干旱的几个世纪,干旱条件也有所改善。为了说明考虑干旱的非平稳性如何增加水的适应能力,我们考虑了涉及四个主要利益相关者群体的广义案例研究:农业生产者,大型地表水供应商,小型地下水管理区和区域水计划区。我们还将研究一个定制的气候信息示例,该信息被用作远程水规划的输入。我们发现,尽管利益相关者重视气候模型输出的量化能力,但更具体的气候相关信息可以更好地支持多个利益相关者群体之间的弹性规划。新的工具套件可以为利益相关者特定的短期和长期适应计划提供必要的能力。我们还将研究一个定制的气候信息示例,该信息被用作远程水计划的输入。我们发现,尽管利益相关者重视气候模型输出的量化能力,但更具体的气候相关信息可以更好地支持多个利益相关者群体之间的弹性规划。新的工具套件可以为利益相关者特定的短期和长期适应计划提供必要的能力。我们还将研究一个定制的气候信息示例,该信息被用作远程水规划的输入。我们发现,尽管利益相关者重视气候模型输出的量化能力,但更具体的气候相关信息可以更好地支持多个利益相关者群体之间的弹性规划。新的工具套件可以为利益相关者特定的短期和长期适应计划提供必要的能力。
更新日期:2020-08-15
down
wechat
bug