Quantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion,Earth's Future

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Quantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-26 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001492
Yuanyuan Yin _{1,

2,

3} , Lei Wang _{1,

2,

4} , Zhongjing Wang ₅ , Qiuhong Tang _{4,

6} , Shilong Piao ₇ , Deliang Chen ₈ , Jun Xia ₉ , Tobias Conradt ₁₀ , Junguo Liu ₁₁ , Yoshihide Wada ₁₂ , Ximing Cai ₁₃ , Zhenghui Xie ₁₄ , Qingyun Duan ₁₅ , Xiuping Li _{1,

2} , Jing Zhou _{1,

2} , Jianyun Zhang ₁₆

Affiliation

Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing China
CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing China
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing China
College of Earth and Planetary University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
State Key Laboratory of Hydro‐Science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China
College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China
Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Sweden
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan China
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany
School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen China
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Schlossplatz Laxenburg Austria
Ven Te Chow Hydrosystems Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign Urbana IL United States of America
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology‐Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai University Nanjing China
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology‐Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing China

With the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South‐to‐North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context of climatic and societal changes and its potential effects on economic and agricultural food in the region. We used water supply stress index (WaSSI) to quantify water scarcity within the context of environmental change in NC and developed a method to estimate the economic and agricultural impacts of the SNWD. Focuses were put on alleviating the water supply shortage and economic and agricultural benefits for the water‐receiving NC. We find that societal changes, especially economic growth, are the major contributors to water scarcity in NC during 2009–2099. To completely mitigate the water scarcity of NC, at least an additional water supply of 13 billion m³/year (comparable to the annual diversion water by SNWD Central Route) will be necessary. Although SNWD alone cannot provide the full solution to NC's water shortage in next few decades, it can significantly alleviate the water supply stress in NC (particularly Beijing), considerably increasing the agricultural production (more than 115 Tcal/year) and bringing economic benefits (more than 51 billion RMB/year) through supplying industrial and domestic water use. Additionally, the transfer project could have impacts on the ecological environment in the exporting regions.

更新日期：2020-08-11

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