Scientists are increasingly engaging with stakeholders to codesign scenarios of land use change necessitating methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations. We demonstrate a transparent method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of land use and land cover (LULC) change using the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study. The NELF project codesigned four divergent narrative scenarios that contrast with a Recent Trends scenario projecting a continuation of observed changes New England over the past 20 years. Here, we (1) describe the process and utility of translating qualitative scenarios into spatial simulations using a dynamic cellular land change model, (2) evaluate scenario LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other, (3) compare the fate of forests within stakeholder‐defined areas of concern, and (4) describe how a user‐inspired outreach tool was developed to make the simulations and analyses accessible to a diverse user group. The associated simulations are strongly divergent in terms of the amount of LULC change and the spatial pattern of change. Among the scenarios, there is a fivefold difference in the amount of high‐density development and a twofold difference in the amount of protected land. Features of the simulations can clearly be linked back to the original storylines. Overall, the rate of LULC change has a greater influence on stakeholder areas of concern than the spatial configuration. The simulated scenarios have been integrated into an online mapping tool via a user‐engagement process meeting the needs of a variety of stakeholders.

中文翻译：

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新英格兰的带代码签名的土地覆盖变化方案的空间模拟：替代期货及其对保护优先权的后果

科学家越来越多地与利益相关者合作，对土地利用变化的情景进行符号化编码，因此有必要采用各种方法将所得的定性情景转化为定量模拟。我们展示了一种透明的方法，可以使用新英格兰景观未来（NELF）项目作为案例研究，将参与性情景转换为对土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化的模拟。NELF项目在符号表达上有四个不同的叙述场景，与“最近趋势”场景形成对比，该场景预测了新英格兰在过去20年中的变化。在这里，我们（1）描述了使用动态蜂窝土地变化模型将定性情景转换为空间模拟的过程和效用；（2）评估了情景LULC配置与“近期趋势”情景以及彼此之间的相对关系，（3）比较利益相关者定义的关注区域内森林的命运，（4）描述如何开发用户启发的外展工具，以使模拟和分析可供不同的用户群体使用。在LULC变化量和变化的空间模式方面，相关的模拟差异很大。在这些方案中，高密度开发的数量有五倍的差异，保护土地的数量有两倍的差异。模拟的功能可以清楚地链接回原始故事情节。总体而言，土地利用变化的变化率对利益相关者关注区域的影响要大于空间配置。通过满足各种利益相关者需求的用户参与过程，将模拟方案集成到在线地图工具中。