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A generic macroscopic cellular automata model for land use change: The case of the Drâa valley
Ecological Complexity ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100851
Fatima Ezahra Sfa , Mohamed Nemiche , Hamza Rayd

Abstract The study of change in land use has been recently included in territorial planning in order to inform spatial planners and policy makers of the possible future developments and therefore optimize their management decisions. Several models have been proposed to simulate land use change. These models are used to understand and analyze the previous change in order to explore the future evolutions. In this paper, we propose a macroscopic cellular automata model for land use change by introducing local competition between land uses. By implementing our model in Drâa-valley Moroccan region, the land use change from 2003 to 2016 was simulated. The study area is characterized by a vulnerable agricultural area and with height ecological constraints. The land use maps in 2016 were used as a reference to validate the proposed model. The qualitative validation achieved a good accuracy of 80% between the observed data and the simulated data. In order to explore the land use dynamics from 2016 to 2021 two scenarios have been assumed in the study area. In the first scenario we simulated an evolution without ecological constraints. Whereas, in second scenario we have prohibited the construction in the bed of valley in order to protect agricultural area.

中文翻译:

土地利用变化的通用宏观元胞自动机模型:以 Drâa 山谷为例

摘要 土地利用变化的研究最近已被纳入领土规划,以告知空间规划者和政策制定者未来可能的发展,从而优化他们的管理决策。已经提出了几种模型来模拟土地利用变化。这些模型用于理解和分析先前的变化,以探索未来的演变。在本文中,我们通过引入土地利用之间的局部竞争,提出了一个用于土地利用变化的宏观元胞自动机模型。通过在 Drâa-valley 摩洛哥地区实施我们的模型,模拟了 2003 年至 2016 年的土地利用变化。研究区的特点是农业区脆弱,高度生态约束。2016 年的土地利用图被用作验证所提出模型的参考。定性验证在观测数据和模拟数据之间实现了 80% 的良好准确率。为了探索 2016 年至 2021 年的土地利用动态,在研究区域假设了两种情景。在第一个场景中,我们模拟了没有生态约束的进化。而在第二种情况下,为了保护农业区,我们禁止在谷床内施工。
更新日期:2020-08-01
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