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The world’s growing municipal solid waste: Trends and impacts
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-30 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8659
David Meng-Chuen Chen 1, 2 , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky 2 , Tobias Krueger 3 , Abhijeet Mishra 1, 2 , Alexander Popp 2
Affiliation  

Global municipal waste production causes multiple environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, ocean plastic accumulation, and nitrogen pollution. However, estimates of both past and future development of waste and pollution are scarce. We apply compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965-2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country. We find that total wastes grow at declining speed with economic development, and that global waste generation has increased from 635 Mt in 1965 to 1999 Mt in 2015 and reaches 3539 Mt by 2050 (median values, middle-of-the-road scenario). From 2015 to 2050, the global share of organic waste declines from 47% to 39%, while all other waste type shares increase, especially paper. The share of waste treated in dumps declines from 28% to 18%, and more sustainable recycling, composting, and energy recovery treatments increase. Despite these increases, we estimate environmental loads to continue increasing in the future, although yearly plastic waste input into the oceans has reached a peak. Waste production does not appear to follow the environmental Kuznets curve, and current projections do not meet UN SDGs for waste reduction. Our study shows that a continuation of current trends and improvements is insufficient to reduce pressures on natural systems and achieve a circular economy. Relative to 2015, the amount of recycled waste would need to increase from 363 Mt to 740 Mt by 2030 to begin reducing unsustainable waste generation, compared to 519 Mt currently projected.

中文翻译:

世界不断增长的城市固体废物:趋势和影响

全球城市垃圾产生会造成多种环境影响,包括温室气体排放、海洋塑料堆积和氮污染。然而,对废物和污染过去和未来发展的估计很少。我们应用成分贝叶斯回归对每个国家过去和未来(1965-2100 年)的废物产生量按成分和处理方式进行分类,以及由此产生的环境影响进行初步估计。我们发现,随着经济的发展,废物总量增长速度下降,全球废物产生量从 1965 年的 635 Mt 增加到 2015 年的 1999 Mt,到 2050 年达到 3539 Mt(中值,中间道路情景)。从 2015 年到 2050 年,有机废物的全球份额从 47% 下降到 39%,而所有其他废物类型的份额都在增加,尤其是纸张。在垃圾场中处理的废物比例从 28% 下降到 18%,并且更可持续的回收、堆肥和能源回收处理增加。尽管有这些增加,但我们估计未来环境负荷将继续增加,尽管每年输入海洋的塑料垃圾已达到顶峰。废物生产似乎没有遵循环境库兹涅茨曲线,目前的预测不符合联合国减少废物的可持续发展目标。我们的研究表明,当前趋势的延续和改进不足以减轻自然系统的压力并实现循环经济。相对于 2015 年,到 2030 年,回收废物的数量需要从 363 Mt 增加到 740 Mt,才能开始减少不可持续的废物产生,而目前预计为 519 Mt。
更新日期:2020-06-30
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