Quasi-induced exposure (QIE) is an effective technique for estimating the exposure of a specific driving or vehicle population when real exposure data are not available. Typically crash prediction models are carried out at the site level, that is, segment or intersection. Driving population characteristics are generally not available at this level, however, and thus are omitted from count models. Because of the sparsity of traffic crashes, estimating driving population distributions at the site level using crash data at individual sites is challenging. This study proposes a technique to obtain demographic proportions to incorporate in the count models as an exposure at each site by aggregating similar adjacent sites until significant demographic proportions are obtained. Information on driver gender, age, and vehicle type are obtained by QIE using five years (2010–2014) of crash data; and road inventories are obtained for 1,264 urban four-lane divided highway segments in California. Count models including only site level factors were compared with models including both crash level and site level factors. The latter outperformed the former in relation to mean prediction bias and mean absolute deviation statistics on holdout sample predictions. Results indicate that teen drivers are more crash prone in total and in fatal plus injury severity crashes. For senior drivers, crash risk increases with the increase in severity level. The presence of vehicles other than passenger cars and trucks reduces total and property damage only crash counts. Female drivers are associated with higher total and fatal plus injury crash counts.

当没有实际的暴露数据时，准诱导暴露（QIE）是一种有效的技术，用于估计特定驾驶或车辆人群的暴露。通常，碰撞预测模型是在站点级别（即路段或交叉点）执行的。通常，在此级别上无法提供驾驶人口特征，因此，计数模型中将其省略。由于交通事故的稀疏性，使用单个站点的事故数据来估计站点级别的行车人口分布具有挑战性。这项研究提出了一种技术，通过汇总相似的相邻站点直到获得重要的人口统计比例，来获取人口统计比例，以将其纳入每个站点的暴露模型中的计数模型。有关驾驶​​员性别，年龄，和车辆类型是由QIE使用五年（2010-2014年）的碰撞数据得出的；并获得了加利福尼亚1,264个城市四车道划分的高速公路路段的公路清单。将仅包含站点级别因素的计数模型与包含崩溃级别和站点级别因素的模型进行了比较。后者在保留样本预测的均值预测偏差和均值绝对偏差统计方面优于前者。结果表明，青少年驾驶员在总体和致命加伤害严重性事故中更容易发生撞车事故。对于高级驾驶员而言，碰撞风险随着严重程度的提高而增加。除乘用车和卡车以外的其他车辆的出现会减少总数，并且仅因撞车而造成的财产损失。女司机与更高的总死亡人数和伤害事故数相关。