Human beings face unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic outbreak since the beginning of 2020. This disease started to change economic, social, and individual conventional behaviors. Several economic activities have sharply declined, and demand for commodities is decreasing, such as oil. This commodity has also suffered from disagreement among Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ members to deal with the amount of cutting oil production. This situation adds a supply-side problem into declining demand due to Covid-19. Turkey, as an emerging economy, highly depends on imported oil and suffers from this pandemic disease. This study aims to analyze the compensating role of falling oil prices for impacts of Covid-19 on non-recoverable sectors in Turkey, e.g. tourism, travel, and transportation. The main argument in the study, that is falling prices in oil can contribute to compensation for losing revenue from tourism, travel, and transport. Throughout the study, ORANI-G as a multisectoral computable general equilibrium model is employed. Three scenarios, namely Scenario-1, 2A, and 2B, are set to analyze the effects of falling oil prices as compensation for Covid-19 in the selected sectors. Results show that Covid-19 decreases gross domestic product by 1.16 but falling oil prices as 25 and 50% compensate for this decrease by 0.72 and 1.56% gross domestic product increases, respectively. It is concluded that through the falling oil prices, Turkey’s dependence on crude oil imports might provide a new reparation to overcome non-recoverable impacts. This study is scoped with selected sectors and falling oil prices. Other economic and social sectors need to be investigated in terms of challenges of Covid-19 and opportunities for declining crude oil prices. Besides, competitiveness based on the scale of firms and the ability to access business finance should be analyzed within the changing business model in the post-coronavirus period.

中文翻译：

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Covid-19 对土耳其不可恢复经济部门的影响以弥补原油价格下跌：可计算的一般均衡分析

自 2020 年初以来，人类面临前所未有的 Covid-19 大流行。这种疾病开始改变经济、社会和个人的常规行为。一些经济活动急剧下降，对石油等大宗商品的需求正在下降。这种商品还受到石油输出国组织 (OPEC)+ 成员国在处理减产数量方面的分歧。由于 Covid-19，这种情况增加了需求下降的供应方问题。土耳其作为新兴经济体，高度依赖进口石油，深受疫情影响。本研究旨在分析油价下跌对 Covid-19 对土耳其不可恢复部门（例如旅游、旅行和运输）的影响的补偿作用。该研究的主要论点，也就是说，石油价格下跌可能有助于弥补旅游、旅行和运输收入的损失。在整个研究中，采用 ORANI-G 作为多部门可计算一般均衡模型。三种情景，即情景 1、2A 和 2B，旨在分析油价下跌的影响，作为对所选行业 Covid-19 的补偿。结果表明，Covid-19 使国内生产总值减少了 1.16，但油价下跌 25% 和 50% 弥补了国内生产总值增长的 0.72% 和 1.56%。结论是，通过油价下跌，土耳其对原油进口的依赖可能为克服不可恢复的影响提供新的补偿。这项研究的范围是选定的行业和油价下跌。需要根据 Covid-19 的挑战和原油价格下跌的机会调查其他经济和社会部门。此外，应在后冠状病毒时期不断变化的商业模式中分析基于公司规模的竞争力和获得商业融资的能力。