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Numerical Modeling of Microbial Fate and Transport in Natural Waters: Review and Implications for Normal and Extreme Storm Events
Water ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-30 , DOI: 10.3390/w12071876
Chelsea J. Weiskerger , Mantha S. Phanikumar

Degradation of water quality in recreational areas can be a substantial public health concern. Models can help beach managers make contemporaneous decisions to protect public health at recreational areas, via the use of microbial fate and transport simulation. Approaches to modeling microbial fate and transport vary widely in response to local hydrometeorological contexts, but many parameterizations include terms for base mortality, solar inactivation, and sedimentation of microbial contaminants. Models using these parameterizations can predict up to 87% of variation in observed microbial concentrations in nearshore water, with root mean squared errors ranging from 0.41 to 5.37 log10 Colony Forming Units (CFU) 100 mL−1. This indicates that some models predict microbial fate and transport more reliably than others and that there remains room for model improvement across the board. Model refinement will be integral to microbial fate and transport simulation in the face of less readily observable processes affecting water quality in nearshore areas. Management of contamination phenomena such as the release of storm-associated river plumes and the exchange of contaminants between water and sand at the beach can benefit greatly from optimized fate and transport modeling in the absence of directly observable data.

中文翻译:

自然水域微生物归宿和运输的数值模拟:对正常和极端风暴事件的回顾和启示

休闲区的水质恶化可能是一个重大的公共卫生问题。通过使用微生物归宿和运输模拟,模型可以帮助海滩管理者做出保护休闲区公共健康的同期决策。模拟微生物命运和运输的方法因当地水文气象环境而异,但许多参数化包括基本死亡率、太阳灭活和微生物污染物沉积的术语。使用这些参数化的模型可以预测近岸水中观察到的微生物浓度的变化高达 87%,均方根误差范围从 0.41 到 5.37 log10 菌落形成单位 (CFU) 100 mL-1。这表明某些模型比其他模型更可靠地预测微生物命运和运输,并且模型仍有全面改进的空间。面对影响近岸地区水质的不易观察过程,模型改进将成为微生物归宿和运输模拟的组成部分。在缺乏直接可观测数据的情况下,对污染现象的管理,例如与风暴相关的河流羽流的释放以及海滩上水和沙子之间的污染物交换,可以从优化的归宿和运输模型中受益匪浅。
更新日期:2020-06-30
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