Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions.

森林对径流和浅层滑坡的发生具有重要的调节作用。它们的结构和组成直接影响水文地貌过程的风险，例如具有高沉积物输送或泥石流的洪水。气候变化正在极大地改变森林生态系统，对于中欧而言，预计未来风和昆虫爆发造成的自然干扰会增加。这些变化如何影响森林生态系统的调节功能仍不清楚。通过结合林业、水文和岩土工程的方法，我们研究了气候变化和扰动机制对浅层滑坡的可能影响。我们在 200 多年的四种不同未来气候情景下模拟了奥地利东阿尔卑斯山两个源头流域的森林景观。我们的研究结果表明，气候介导的森林动态变化可以大大改变森林生态系统的保护功能。在我们的模拟中，气候变化通常会增加滑坡风险。只有当未来的变暖与干旱滑坡同时发生时，滑坡风险相对于历史条件才会降低。深入分析表明，未来滑坡风险的一个重要驱动因素是模拟的植被组成。远离平生挪威云杉的轨迹（深入分析表明，未来滑坡风险的一个重要驱动因素是模拟的植被组成。远离平生挪威云杉的轨迹（深入分析表明，未来滑坡风险的一个重要驱动因素是模拟的植被组成。远离平生挪威云杉的轨迹（Picea abies (L.) Karst.) 森林目前在该系统中占主导地位，越来越多的树种具有心脏和主根系统，增加了根系的凝聚力并减少了滑坡中动员的土壤体积。在我们的模拟中，自然干扰通常会降低滑坡风险，加速树种变化和增加根系凝聚力的积极影响超过了干扰对水循环的潜在负面影响。我们得出的结论是，虽然气候变化可能会大大降低保护性森林等绿色基础设施的功效，但此类系统也具有适应不断变化的条件的强大内在能力。森林管理应培养这种适应能力，以加强森林在不断变化的环境条件下的保护功能。