The paper simulates ecological risk assessment for shelf ecosystems based on the ecoscreening and dynamic methods synthesis. Both approaches and environmental risk model are described, which results make it possible to estimate probability of acceptable impact on the shelf ecosystem. In contrast to existing approaches related to ranking and compiling risk matrices, the proposed method based on probabilistic ecoscreening risk assessment takes into account not only the altering conditions of external influence on the shelf ecosystem, but also the intra-annual dynamics of its main components. This makes it possible to calculate the ecological risk not as a fixed value for the ecosystem under study, but as its component changing over the course of a year along with the intra-annual functioning dynamics. The latter is especially important for the coastal basins, where processes of various genesis are concentrated, high gradients of biomass values and concentrations of components containing it are presented. To simulate various scenarios of combining the effect of external stressors with the intra-annual dynamics of the ecosystem functioning, the Northern Caspian shelf basin was selected, which is subject to intense river flow and to exposure to mineral resources development technologies, including oil and gas. Ecological risk values were calculated taking into account combination of adverse natural factors and implementation of emergency and regular anthropogenic impacts at different periods of the shelf ecosystem components natural dynamics. Results made it possible to assess probabilities of the allowable exposure of shelf ecosystem, to identify areas with the 100% probability of allowable impact and especially critical areas with less than 5% of the impact probability. Calculations show not only efficiency of the proposed approach, but also open possibility of harmonizing ecological and economic requirements in the development of shelf resources. For areas with high allowable impact probability, it is possible to reduce the economic costs of ensuring ecological safety. Ecological risk areas, which are characterized by low estimate of allowable impact probability require an increase in the safety economic expenses. The proposed approach to estimating the intra-annual risk dynamics is of interdisciplinary nature and could be useful both to specialists in the ecology area, in the related fields, and to management personnel in making decisions on redistributing economic expenses and minimizing them while maintaining the priority of environmental safety.

在生态筛选和动态方法综合的基础上，模拟了陆架生态系统的生态风险评估。描述了两种方法和环境风险模型，其结果使得可以估计对架子生态系统可接受影响的可能性。与现有的与风险矩阵排序和汇总有关的方法相比，基于概率生态筛选风险评估的拟议方法不仅考虑了对架子生态系统外部影响的变化条件，还考虑了其​​主要组成部分的年内动态。这使得有可能计算生态风险，而不是将其作为研究中的生态系统的固定值，而是将其风险组成与一年中的功能动态一起在一年中变化。后者对于沿海盆地尤其重要，在沿海盆地各种成因的过程都被集中，生物量值和包含它的组分的浓度都呈现出高梯度。为了模拟将外部压力因素的影响与生态系统功能的年内动态相结合的各种情景，选择了北里海陆架盆地，该盆地受河流的强烈流动，并接触石油和天然气等矿产资源开发技术。计算生态风险值时要考虑到不利的自然因素的组合，以及在架子生态系统组成部分自然动态的不同时期实施的紧急和常规人为影响。结果使评估架子生态系统允许暴露的可能性成为可能，确定允许影响的可能性为100％的区域，尤其是影响影响的可能性小于5％的关键区域。计算结果不仅显示了所提出方法的效率，而且还揭示了在货架资源开发中协调生态和经济要求的可能性。对于具有较高允许影响概率的区域，可以降低确保生态安全的经济成本。以允许的影响可能性的估计值较低为特征的生态风险区要求增加安全经济支出。估算年内风险动态的拟议方法具有跨学科性质，对生态学领域的专家以及相关领域的研究人员都可能有用，