The aim of present study was to predict the potential distribution of mango shoot gall psylla, Apsylla cistellata (Psyllidae: Hemiptera) under current and future climate scenarios of 2050 and 2070. This study was conducted across six states in India where their infestation and occurrence noticed. The study provided a deep insight on surveys of shoot gall psylla infestation that occurred between 2012 and 2018. Current and future climate change scenarios acquired from the WorldClim database and Maxent modeling technique was used to fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential shoot gall psylla distributions. The model performance was tested using area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values. Response curves depicted the relationships between bioclimatic variables and predicted probability of A.cistellata presence. MaxEnt model used to develop spatial map and their distributions for selected climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5. RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) and mapped the habitat for A.cistellata suitability under current and future scenarios. Present study results suggested that under current climate change scenarios, the potential distribution of shoot gall psylla was noticed in Western and Central part of Uttar Pradesh and Eastern part of Madhya Pradesh. In future climate change scenarios predicted suitable habitat areas for A.cistellata was found mostly from regions of Western and Central Uttar Pradesh, Southern parts Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The predicted suitability maps developed from present study will be useful in planning and designing of pest management strategies to control pest effectively from designated areas. The study provides clutches of clues for understanding potential changes in distribution and activity of pest in designated areas in response to current and future climate change scenarios.

中文翻译：

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预测不同气候变化情景下芒果（Mangifera indica）上地理限制物种Apsylla cistellata Buckton（木虱科：半翅目）的潜在分布

本研究的目的是预测 2050 年和 2070 年当前和未来气候情景下芒果笋瘿木虱（木虱科：半翅目）的潜在分布。这项研究是在印度的六个州进行的，它们的侵染和发生. 该研究提供了对 2012 年至 2018 年间发生的芽瘿木虱侵染调查的深刻见解。从 WorldClim 数据库中获取的当前和未来气候变化情景和 Maxent 建模技术用于拟合发生点和当前气候数据，以模拟潜在的芽胆木虱分布。使用受试者工作特征 (ROC) 值的曲线下面积 (AUC) 测试模型性能。响应曲线描绘了生物气候变量与 A.cistellata 存在的预测概率之间的关系。MaxEnt 模型用于为选定的气候变化情景（RCP2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0 和 RCP 8.5）开发空间地图及其分布，并绘制了当前和未来情景下 A.cistellata 适宜性的栖息地。目前的研究结果表明，在当前的气候变化情景下，在北方邦西部和中部以及中央邦东部发现了笋瘿木虱的潜在分布。在未来的气候变化情景中，预测的 A.cistellata 适宜栖息地主要来自北方邦西部和中部、喜马偕尔邦南部和北阿坎德邦。根据本研究开发的预测适宜性地图将有助于规划和设计有害生物管理策略，以从指定区域有效控制有害生物。该研究为了解指定区域内有害生物分布和活动的潜在变化提供了大量线索，以应对当前和未来的气候变化情景。