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Induced Vehicle Travel in the Environmental Review Process
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-15 , DOI: 10.1177/0361198120923365
Jamey M. B. Volker 1 , Amy E. Lee 1 , Susan Handy 1
Affiliation  

If we expand roadway capacity, more drivers will come, or so economic theory suggests and a substantial body of empirical research now shows. Despite strong evidence, the “induced travel” effect is often ignored, underestimated, or misestimated in the planning process, particularly in the assessment of the environmental impacts of roadway capacity expansions. Underestimating induced travel will generally lead to overestimation of the traffic congestion relief benefits a highway expansion project might generate, along with underestimation of its environmental impacts. A major reason that induced travel tends to be underplayed in environmental analyses is that travel demand models do not typically include all of the feedback loops necessary to accurately predict the induced travel effect. We developed an online tool, based on elasticities reported in the literature, to facilitate the estimation of the induced vehicle travel impacts of roadway capacity expansion projects in California, with potential future expansion to other geographies. We describe the tool, apply it to five case study highway capacity expansion projects, and then compare the results with the induced travel estimates reported in the environmental impact analyses for those projects. Our results suggest that environmental analyses frequently fail to fully capture the induced vehicle travel effects of highway capacity expansion projects.



中文翻译:

在环境审查过程中引起的车辆行驶

如果我们扩大道路通行能力,将会有更多的驾驶员来临,或者经济理论表明,现在有大量的实证研究表明。尽管有充分的证据,但在规划过程中,尤其是在评估道路通行能力扩展对环境的影响时,常常会忽略,低估或低估“诱导的行驶”效应。低估诱导的行驶通常会导致高估高速公路扩建项目可能产生的交通拥堵救济收益以及对环境影响的低估。在环境分析中,诱导旅行倾向于被低估的主要原因是,旅行需求模型通常不包括准确预测诱导旅行效果所必需的所有反馈回路。我们开发了一个在线工具,基于文献中报道的弹性,可以方便地估算加利福尼亚州道路通行能力扩展项目对车辆行驶造成的影响,并可能在将来扩展到其他地区。我们将对该工具进行描述,并将其应用于五个案例研究的高速公路通行能力扩展项目,然后将结果与这些项目的环境影响分析中报告的诱导出行估计进行比较。我们的结果表明,环境分析经常无法完全捕捉高速公路扩能项目引起的车辆行驶影响。将其应用于五个案例研究中的高速公路产能扩展项目,然后将结果与这些项目的环境影响分析中报告的诱导出行估计进行比较。我们的结果表明,环境分析经常无法完全捕捉高速公路扩能项目引起的车辆行驶影响。将其应用于五个案例研究中的高速公路产能扩展项目,然后将结果与这些项目的环境影响分析中报告的诱导出行估计进行比较。我们的结果表明,环境分析经常无法完全捕捉高速公路扩能项目引起的车辆行驶影响。

更新日期:2020-06-19
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