Liparus glabrirostris is one of the largest European weevils, and it has been recently proposed as the flagship species for threatened riparian habitats in mountains. For effective conservation of its populations (and associated habitats), it is crucial to understand its history, contemporary distribution, genetic diversity and predict changes in the range, including its highly isolated populations on the Baltic coast. Here, we examined numerous populations of L. glabrirostris across almost the entire species range using phylogeography and species niche modelling approaches. Analyses of mtDNA and nucDNA markers revealed the existence of two major mitochondrial lineages generally separated between: i) the Alpine region and ii) the Bohemian Massif, the Carpathians and the Baltic coast areas. Genetic diversity in nuclear genes was more complicated with no clear division between populations. The origin of Baltic populations was derived from the Carpathians, but there were probably multiple expansion events to the north. Species niche modelling suggested the existence of glacial refugia for L. glabrirostris mainly in the Alps and the Southern Carpathians. Current predictions of species range were found to be generally congruent with zoogeographic data; however, the Baltic coast was not really supported as a suitable area for L. glabrirostris. An important prediction of future distribution (2050-2070 CE) suggests a shrinkage of the L. glabrirostris range and extinction of some of its populations (particularly those isolated on lower altitudes). Based on the aforementioned data, proposals for the protection of this species are proposed, including the designation of several evolutionary units of conservation importance.

中文翻译：

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山象甲孤立种群的起源，Liparus glabrirostris——河岸栖息地的旗舰物种

Liparus glabrirostris 是欧洲最大的象鼻虫之一，最近被提议作为山区受威胁的河岸栖息地的旗舰物种。为了有效保护其种群（和相关栖息地），了解其历史、当代分布、遗传多样性和预测范围内的变化至关重要，包括其在波罗的海沿岸高度孤立的种群。在这里，我们使用系统地理学和物种生态位建模方法检查了几乎整个物种范围内的大量 L. glabrirostris 种群。对 mtDNA 和 nucDNA 标记的分析表明存在两个主要的线粒体谱系，它们通常分开：i) 阿尔卑斯地区和 ii) 波西米亚地块、喀尔巴阡山脉和波罗的海沿岸地区。核基因的遗传多样性更加复杂，种群之间没有明确的划分。波罗的海人口起源于喀尔巴阡山脉，但北部可能发生了多次扩张事件。物种生态位模型表明 L. glabrirostris 主要存在于阿尔卑斯山和南喀尔巴阡山脉的冰川避难所。发现目前对物种范围的预测与动物地理数据基本一致；然而，波罗的海沿岸并未真正被支持为 L. glabrirostris 的合适区域。对未来分布（公元 2050 年至 2070 年）的一项重要预测表明 L. glabrirostris 范围缩小，部分种群（尤其是孤立在低海拔地区的种群）灭绝。根据上述数据，提出保护该物种的建议，