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Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Seawater Intrusion in Cubatão River, Brazil
Environmental Modeling & Assessment ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s10666-020-09720-y
Fábio Paiva da Silva , José Rodolfo Scarati Martins , Fábio Ferreira Nogueira

Estuarine systems are very sensitive environments to sea level rise as a consequence of climate changes, which can enhance seawater intrusion and affect multiple water uses. The seawater intrusion under sea level scenarios in an estuarine river by applying the one-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model HEC-RAS 5.0.5 was studied. The study was carried out at the estuarine reach of Cubatão River, in São Paulo, Brazil. Considering sea level rise scenarios of ΔH = 0.25 m, 0.50 m, and 1.0 m combined with constant freshwater discharge conditions for Cubatão River (16 m3/s, mean annual discharge and 8 m3/s, dry season discharge), the model results showed that seawater intrusion moves significantly upstream the river in all cases and the maximum seawater intrusion length may reach 10 km in the worst scenario (ΔH = 1.0 m and 8 m3/s freshwater discharge), 70% higher than the current sea level and the mean discharge. At the local water abstraction point for urban supply, salinity concentration may reach 12 g/kg, making conventional water treatment unfeasible. Sea level rise may threaten water supply facilities and require water resource management solutions, such as water abstraction restricted times when salinity concentration is low; higher freshwater reservation; new water abstraction locations, farther the present ones; or higher water discharges in Cubatão River from a local hydroelectric power plant, which can cause water resource management conflicts.



中文翻译:

海平面上升对巴西古巴班托河海水入侵的影响

由于气候变化,河口系统对海平面上升非常敏感,这会加剧海水入侵并影响多种用水。应用一维水动力和水质模型HEC-RAS 5.0.5,研究了河口海平面情景下的海水入侵。这项研究是在巴西圣保罗的Cubatão河口进行的。考虑到古巴升 河ΔH = 0.25 m,0.50 m和1.0 m的海平面上升情景以及恒定的淡水排放条件(16 m 3 / s,年平均排放量和8 m 3/ s,旱季排放),模型结果表明,在所有情况下,海水入侵都在河流上游显着移动,在最坏的情况下(ΔH  = 1.0 m和8 m 3),最大海水入侵长度可能达到10 km/ s淡水排放量),比当前的海平面和平均排放量高70%。在当地城市供水的取水点,盐度浓度可能达到12 g / kg,这使得常规的水处理不可行。海平面上升可能会威胁到供水设施,并需要水资源管理解决方案,例如盐分浓度低时取水受限的时间;较高的淡水储备;新的取水地点,距离现在更远;或当地水力发电厂在古巴河中的较高排水量,可能导致水资源管理冲突。

更新日期:2020-06-27
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