The aims of evaluating forensic evidence are to provide a transparent, coherent, and unbiased opinion of the value of the evidence to fact‐finders. Measurements from glass evidence in a hit‐and‐run, for example, can help decide if a particular vehicle was involved in the accident. The evaluation involves the comparison of the physical, optical, and chemical properties of the glass recovered from the broken window with glass fragments suspected of originating from the window. A standard method (ASTM E2927‐16e1) describes a consensus‐based approach to sampling, sample preparation, quantitative analysis and “match” criterion for comparison of chemical properties. The result is a binary decision of either finding a difference in the elemental composition (exclusion) or a failure to exclude, based on elemental composition. This study demonstrates the utility of likelihood ratio (LR) calculations using novel datasets of glass samples of known manufacturing history. The LRs calculated from comparing glass manufactured at three different plants over relatively short periods (over 2‐6 weeks) range from very low values (LR ~ 10−3) when the glass are manufactured at different plants or manufactured weeks‐months apart in the same plant to very high values (LR ~ 103) when the glass samples are manufactured on the same day. Although the glass samples being compared may not originate from the same broken window source, they do exhibit chemical similarity within these lower and upper bounds and the LRs presented here, for the first time, closely correlate chemical relatedness to manufacturing history, specifically the time interval between production. The work presented here supports the use of the match criteria recommended within ASTM E2927‐16e1 and provides a data‐driven path forward to expand on the interpretation of glass using LRs.

中文翻译：

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用于法医目的的玻璃分析化学数据的解释

评估法医证据的目的是向事实发现者提供关于证据价值的透明、连贯和公正的意见。例如，在肇事逃逸中对玻璃证据的测量可以帮助确定特定车辆是否涉及事故。评估包括将从破碎的窗户中回收的玻璃的物理、光学和化学特性与怀疑源自窗户的玻璃碎片进行比较。标准方法 (ASTM E2927-16e1) 描述了一种基于共识的采样、样品制备、定量分析和用于比较化学性质的“匹配”标准的方法。结果是基于元素组成发现元素组成差异（排除）或未能排除的二元决策。本研究展示了使用已知制造历史的玻璃样品的新数据集进行似然比 (LR) 计算的效用。通过比较三个不同工厂在相对较短的时间内（超过 2-6 周）制造的玻璃计算得出的 LR 范围从非常低的值（LR ~ 10-3），当玻璃在不同工厂制造或在当玻璃样品在同一天制造时，同一工厂达到非常高的值 (LR ~ 103)。尽管所比较的玻璃样品可能并非来自同一个破窗源，但它们确实在这些下限和上限内表现出化学相似性，并且此处呈现的 LR 首次将化学相关性与制造历史密切相关，特别是时间间隔生产之间。