Non‐stationary climate changes in summer high‐temperature extremes in Shanghai since the late 19th century,International Journal of Climatology

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Non‐stationary climate changes in summer high‐temperature extremes in Shanghai since the late 19th century
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-25 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6721
Kai Tu ₁ , Zhongwei Yan _{1,

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Affiliation

Long‐term changes in daily high‐temperature extremes in the summers since the late 19th century in Shanghai and their relationships with decadal or multi‐decadal climatic oscillations have been investigated via non‐stationary statistical modelling based on parametric and nonparametric frameworks. Compared to stationary modelling with the assumption of an unchanging climate, time‐varying non‐stationary models based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) result in much more reasonable estimations of the temperature extremes for the present climate in terms of their return levels and return periods. However, nonparametric modelling with cubic spline smoothing reproduced even better multi‐decadal variability for different periods. The nonparametric method also reduces the biases of estimation, especially in the heavy tail of temperature extremes in parametric GEV models. Additionally, non‐stationary models with large‐scale climate indices indicate clear influences of the large‐scale climate indices, especially the last winter's strong signals from the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. The significant influences of multi‐decadal variabilities from the northern Atlantic in the parametric GEV model are probably also explained by spline terms in the nonparametric method. Further application to other areas in China indicates that the developed nonparametric model can fit their extremes correctly but notable biases also remain in the estimation of distributions and heavy tails.

更新日期：2020-06-25

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