1. Conservation and population management decisions often rely on population models parameterized using census data. However, the sampling regime, precision, sample size, and methods used to collect census data are usually heterogeneous in time and space. Decisions about how to derive population‐wide estimates from this patchwork of data are complicated and may bias estimated population dynamics, with important implications for subsequent management decisions.
2. Here, we explore the impact of site selection and data aggregation decisions on pup survival estimates, and downstream estimates derived from parameterized matrix population models (MPMs), using a long‐term dataset on grey seal (Halichoerus grypus ) pup survival from southwestern Wales. The spatiotemporal and methodological heterogeneity of the data are fairly typical for ecological census data and it is, therefore, a good model to address this topic.
3. Data were collected from 46 sampling locations (sites) over 25 years, and we explore the impact of data handling decisions by varying how years and sampling locations are combined to parameterize pup survival in population‐level MPMs. We focus on pup survival because abundant high‐quality data are available on this developmental stage.
4. We found that survival probability was highly variable with most variation being at the site level, and poorly correlated among sampling sites. This variation could generate marked differences in predicted population dynamics depending on sampling strategy. The sample size required for a confident survival estimate also varied markedly geographically.
5. We conclude that for populations with highly variable vital rates among sub‐populations, site selection and data aggregation methods are important. In particular, including peripheral or less frequently used areas can introduce substantial variation into population estimates. This is likely to be context‐dependent, but these choices, including the use of appropriate weights when summarizing across sampling areas, should be explored to ensure that management actions are successful.

中文翻译：

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人口普查数据汇总决策可能会影响异类人口中的人口水平推断。

1. 保护和人口管理决策通常依赖于使用人口普查数据参数化的人口模型。但是，采样方式，精度，样本量以及用于收集普查数据的方法通常在时间和空间上都是异类的。关于如何从这些数据拼凑中得出总体人口估计的决定很复杂，可能会使估计的人口动态产生偏差，对后续的管理决策具有重要意义。
2. 在这里，我们使用威尔士西南威尔士灰海豹（Halichoerus grypus）幼崽存活的长期数据集，探索了选址和数据聚集决策对幼崽存活估计以及从参数化矩阵种群模型（MPM）得出的下游估计的影响。数据的时空和方法异质性对于生态普查数据而言是相当典型的，因此，它是解决该主题的一个很好的模型。
3. 在过去25年中，从46个采样点（站点）收集了数据，我们通过改变如何结合年限和采样点以参数化种群级MPM中幼崽存活的方式来探索数据处理决策的影响。我们专注于幼崽的生存，因为在此发育阶段可获得大量高质量的数据。
4. 我们发现生存概率是高度可变的，大多数变异在位点水平，并且在采样位点之间的相关性很差。根据采样策略，这种变化可能会在预测的人口动态方面产生显着差异。可靠的生存估计所需的样本量在地理位置上也有明显差异。
5. 我们得出结论，对于亚人群中生命率变化很大的人群，选址和数据汇总方法很重要。特别是，包括外围地区或使用频率较低的地区，可能会使人口估计值发生重大变化。这可能取决于上下文，但是应该探索这些选择，包括在跨采样区域进行汇总时使用适当的权重，以确保管理操作成功。