Mathematical models were evaluated to predict growth of L. monocytogenes in mould/smear-ripened cheeses with measured dynamic changes in product characteristics and storage conditions. To generate data for model evaluation three challenge tests were performed with mould-ripened cheeses produced by using milk inoculated with L. monocytogenes. Growth of L. monocytogenes and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in the rind and in the core of cheeses were quantified together with changes in product characteristics over time (temperature, pH, NaCl/a_w, lactic- and acetic acid concentrations). The performance of nine available L. monocytogenes growth models was evaluated using growth responses from the present study and from literature together with the determined or reported dynamic product characteristics and storage conditions (46 kinetics). The acceptable simulation zone (ASZ) method was used to assess model performance. A reduced version of the Martinez-Rios et al. (2019) model (https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2019.01510) and the model of Østergaard et al. (2014) (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2014.07.012) had acceptable performance with a ASZ-score of 71-70% for L. monocytogenes growth in mould/smear-ripened cheeses. Models from Coroller et al. (2012) (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2011.09.023) had close to acceptable performance with ASZ-scores of 67–69%. The validated models (Martinez-Rios et al., 2019; Østergaard et al., 2014) can be used to facilitate the evaluation of time to critical L. monocytogenes growth for mould/smear-ripened cheeses including modification of recipes with for example reduced salt/sodium or to support exposure assessment studies for these cheeses.

评估了数学模型，以预测霉菌/涂油干酪中单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌的生长，以及产品特性和储存条件的动态变化。为了产生用于模型评估的数据，使用通过接种单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌的牛奶生产的脱模奶酪进行了三个挑战性测试。生长单增李斯特菌，并在果皮和奶酪的核心乳酸菌（LAB），用随着时间的推移，在产品特性的变化（温度，pH，氯化钠/一个一起定量_瓦特，乳酸-和乙酸的浓度）。九种可用单核细胞增生李斯特菌的表现使用本研究和文献中的生长反应以及确定或报告的动态产品特征和储存条件（46动力学），评估生长模型。可接受的模拟区域（ASZ）方法用于评估模型性能。Martinez-Rios等人的简化版本。（2019）模型（https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2019.01510）和Østergaard等人的模型。（2014）（https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2014.07.012）具有可接受的性能，单核细胞增生李斯特菌的ASZ得分为71-70％霉菌/涂抹干酪的生长。Coroller等人的模型。（2012）（https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2011.09.023）的表现接近可接受，ASZ得分为67-69％。经过验证的模型（Martinez-Rios等，2019;Østergaard等，2014）可用于促进评估模具/涂脂干酪的单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌关键生长时间，包括修改配方（例如降低配方）盐/钠或支持这些奶酪的暴露评估研究。