Mapping the distribution of invasive species under current and future climate conditions is crucial to implement sustainable and effective conservation strategies. Several studies showed how invasive species may benefit from climate change fostering their invasion rate and, consequently, affecting the native species community. In the Canary Islands and on Tenerife in particular, previous research mostly focused on climate change impacts on the native communities, whereas less attention has been paid on alien species distribution under climate change scenarios. In this study, we modelled the habitat distribution of Pennisetum setaceum, one of the most invasive alien species on Tenerife. In addition, we described the species’ potential distribution shift in the light of two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5), highlighting the areas that should be prioritized during management and eradication programs. P. setaceum’s suitable areas are located in the coastal area, with higher habitat suitability near cities and below 800 m asl. In both future climate change scenarios, the geographic distribution of P. setaceum suitable areas is characterized by an elevational shift, which is more pronounced in the RCP8.5 scenario. Despite being drought resistant, water supply is crucial for the species’ seed germination, thus supporting future species’ shift to higher elevation and in the north–north–west part of the island, where it could benefit from the combined effect of orographic precipitations and humidity carried by trade winds.

绘制当前和未来气候条件下的入侵物种分布图对于实施可持续和有效的保护战略至关重要。多项研究表明，入侵物种如何从气候变化中受益，从而提高其入侵率，进而影响本地物种群落。在加那利群岛，特别是在特内里费岛，先前的研究主要集中在气候变化对土著社区的影响上，而在气候变化情景下，对外来物种分布的关注较少。在这项研究中，我们模拟了狼尾草的栖息地分布，特内里费岛上最具入侵性的外来物种之一。此外，我们根据两种气候变化情景（RCP2.6，RCP8.5）描述了该物种的潜在分布变化，强调了在管理和根除计划期间应优先考虑的领域。太子参的适宜区域位于沿海地区，在城市附近和低于800 m asl的栖息地适应性更高。在两种未来的气候变化情景中，P。setaceum的地理分布合适的区域具有高程偏移，这在RCP8.5方案中更为明显。尽管具有抗旱性，但水供应对于该物种的种子发芽至关重要，因此可以支持未来物种向更高海拔以及该岛的北-西北-西部分的转移，那里可能会受益于地形降水和干旱的综合影响。顺风带来的湿度。