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Patterns of abundance across geographical ranges as a predictor for responses to climate change: Evidence from UK rocky shores
Diversity and Distributions ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-24 , DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13118
Siobhan R. Vye 1 , Stephanie Dickens 2 , Leoni Adams 3 , Katrin Bohn 4, 5 , Jade Chenery 2 , Nicola Dobson 6 , Ruth E. Dunn 6, 7 , Hannah S. Earp 1, 8 , Megan Evans 9 , Charlotte Foster 2 , Hannah Grist 10 , Ben Holt 3 , Sue Hull 6 , Stuart R. Jenkins 1 , Peter Lamont 10 , Sarah Long 4 , Nova Mieszkowska 3, 7 , Justine Millard 11 , Zoe Morrall 4 , Kathryn Pack 3 , Hannah Parry‐Wilson 3 , Jacqueline Pocklington 2 , Jane Pottas 6 , Leonie Richardson 11 , Abigail Scott 4 , Heather Sugden 2 , Gordon Watson 4 , Victoria West 1 , Debbie Winton 9 , Jane Delany 2 , Michael T. Burrows 10
Affiliation  

Aim Understanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant‐centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant‐centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science‐generated data set. Location UK. Methods Species' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models. Results Individually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool‐skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant‐centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump‐backed abundance distribution. Main Conclusions Our study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant‐centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.

中文翻译:

跨地理范围的丰度模式作为应对气候变化的预测指标:来自英国岩石海岸的证据

目的 了解跨温度范围的物种丰度模式可以为了解气候变化的潜在影响提供有用的见解。丰度中心假说表明,物种将在其温度范围的中心达到最佳丰度峰值,但支持这一假说的证据在地理和分类学范围内是混合的和有限的。我们使用公民科学生成的大型数据集测试了丰度中心假设在一系列潮间带生物中的适用性。地点英国。方法 物种的丰度记录与其在其热范围内的位置相匹配。使用 Kruskal-Wallis 检验和分位数一般可加模型分析了单个物种的丰度分布模式以及聚合物种丰度。结果 个别地,无脊椎动物物种在热范围较冷的一半显示丰度增加,而在热范围较暖的一半显示丰度减少。聚集的无脊椎动物物种丰度的整体形状反映了一个宽峰,最大丰度偏冷。藻类物种单独显示出丰度中心分布的证据很少,但总体而言,聚合物种丰度表明了驼背丰度分布。主要结论 我们的研究遵循其他研究,在单个物种水平上显示了对丰富中心假设的混合支持,但表明当考虑总体反应时,物种反应的可预测性增加。无脊椎动物物种在热范围较冷的一半显示丰度增加,而在热范围较暖的一半显示丰度减少。聚集的无脊椎动物物种丰度的整体形状反映了一个宽峰,最大丰度偏冷。藻类物种单独显示出丰度中心分布的证据很少,但总体而言,聚合物种丰度表明了驼背丰度分布。主要结论 我们的研究遵循其他研究,在单个物种水平上显示了对丰富中心假设的混合支持,但表明当考虑总体反应时,物种反应的可预测性增加。无脊椎动物物种在热范围较冷的一半显示丰度增加,而在热范围较暖的一半显示丰度减少。聚集的无脊椎动物物种丰度的整体形状反映了一个宽峰,最大丰度偏冷。藻类物种单独显示出丰度中心分布的证据很少,但总体而言,聚合物种丰度表明了驼背丰度分布。主要结论 我们的研究遵循其他研究,在单个物种水平上显示了对丰富中心假设的混合支持,但表明当考虑总体反应时,物种反应的可预测性增加。具有冷偏态的最大丰度。藻类物种单独显示出丰度中心分布的证据很少,但总体而言,聚合物种丰度表明了驼背丰度分布。主要结论 我们的研究遵循其他研究,在单个物种水平上显示了对丰富中心假设的混合支持,但表明当考虑总体反应时,物种反应的可预测性增加。具有冷偏态的最大丰度。藻类物种单独显示出丰度中心分布的证据很少,但总体而言,聚合物种丰度表明了驼背丰度分布。主要结论 我们的研究遵循其他研究,在单个物种水平上显示了对丰富中心假设的混合支持,但表明当考虑总体反应时,物种反应的可预测性增加。
更新日期:2020-06-24
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