Abstract In the autumns of 2010 and 2011, consecutive periods of heavy precipitation occurred in Hainan Island. Two groups of monthly-scale simulation experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Sensitivity of rainfall and submonthly oscillations to cumulus parameterization and cloud microphysical schemes were evaluated. Due to that the experiment combining the Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme and the WDM6 cloud microphysical scheme could reproduce submonthly oscillation characteristics, which showed the higher skill scores of the precipitation simulation than other experiments. Because the Tiedtke scheme is an overall mass flux convection scheme that describes various types of convection, the Grell-Devenyi scheme does not consider the shallow convection, which affects its simulation performance on submonthly oscillations and rainfall. However, in the same cumulus parameterization scheme, different microphysics schemes also have an impact on simulation performance. Experiments that failed to simulate the characteristics of submonthly oscillations exhibited a lower skill scores of precipitation simulation. Interactions of moist physical processes and submonthly oscillations led to the occurrence and development of two consecutive heavy autumn precipitation events on Hainan Island. Submonthly oscillations resulted in a significant effect on the two strong autumn precipitation events, but dominant frequency modes of submonthly oscillations, oscillation characteristics, and propagation paths differed. The autumn 2010 rainfall was dominated by the 8–15-day quasi-biweekly oscillations. The autumn 2011 rainfall was dominated by the 3–10-day synoptic-scale oscillations.

中文翻译：

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海南岛秋季降雨的敏感性和亚月振荡对潮湿物理过程方案的影响

摘要 2010年和2011年秋季，海南岛连续出现强降水。使用天气研究和预测模型进行了两组月尺度模拟实验。评估了降雨和次月振荡对积云参数化和云微物理方案的敏感性。由于 Tiedtke 积云参数化方案和 WDM6 云微物理方案相结合的实验可以再现亚月振荡特征，这表明降水模拟的技能分数高于其他实验。因为 Tiedtke 方案是描述各种类型对流的整体质量通量对流方案，所以 Grell-Devenyi 方案没有考虑浅层对流，这会影响其对次月振荡和降雨的模拟性能。但是，在相同的积云参数化方案中，不同的微物理方案对仿真性能也有影响。未能模拟次月振荡特征的实验表现出较低的降水模拟技能分数。潮湿物理过程和次月振荡的相互作用导致海南岛连续两次秋季强降水事件的发生和发展。次月振荡对两次强秋季降水事件影响显着，但次月振荡的主导频率模式、振荡特征和传播路径不同。2010 年秋季降雨以 8-15 天的准双周振荡为主。