Abstract —In the late 1990s, a high probability of quasi-extinction of the pikeperch population in the Azov Sea within 35 years from 1982 to 2016 was calculated due to increases in salinity. This was based on stochastic simulations with a long-term prediction model of the dynamics of the Azov Sea pikeperch population identified from the 1950−1981 observation data, including stocks, catches, temperatures, and salinities in the Azov Sea. This probabilistic prediction was accurate; the risk event occurred in the 2000s. Since 2005, the abundance of adult pikeperch did not exceed 4 million individuals. Since 2017, the pikeperch catch in the Azov Sea has been completely forbidden. Retrospective validation has demonstrated that the model prediction is in good (qualitative and quantitative) correspondence with the 1982–2018 observation data on dynamics of the pikeperch population. It has also been found that the currently observed rise in annual average sea temperature has a negative impact on fish population dynamics and this phenomenon is no less significant than an increase in salinity. According to a short-range prediction for 2019–2020, the ban on fishing introduced in 2017 is not sufficient to rebuild the stocks of the Azov Sea pikeperch population in the coming years due to existing positive temperature and salinity anomalies.

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亚速海梭鲈面临灭绝风险的长期预测：预测正确吗？

摘要——在 1990 年代后期，由于盐度增加，计算出 1982 年至 2016 年 35 年内亚速海梭鲈种群准灭绝的概率很高。这是基于对亚速海梭鲈种群动态的长期预测模型的随机模拟，该模型从 1950-1981 年的观测数据中确定，包括亚速海的种群、渔获量、温度和盐度。这种概率预测是准确的；风险事件发生在2000年代。自 2005 年以来，成年梭鲈的数量不超过 400 万只。自 2017 年以来，亚速海的梭鲈捕捞已被完全禁止。回顾性验证表明，该模型预测与 1982-2018 年关于梭鲈种群动态的观测数据具有良好的（定性和定量）对应关系。还发现，目前观察到的年平均海水温度上升对鱼类种群动态有负面影响，这种现象的重要性不亚于盐度的增加。根据对 2019-2020 年的短期预测，由于存在正温度和盐度异常，2017 年实施的捕捞禁令不足以在未来几年重建亚速海梭鲈种群的种群。还发现，目前观察到的年平均海水温度上升对鱼类种群动态有负面影响，这种现象的重要性不亚于盐度的增加。根据对 2019-2020 年的短期预测，由于存在正温度和盐度异常，2017 年实施的捕捞禁令不足以在未来几年重建亚速海梭鲈种群的种群。还发现，目前观察到的年平均海水温度上升对鱼类种群动态有负面影响，这种现象的重要性不亚于盐度的增加。根据对 2019-2020 年的短期预测，由于存在正温度和盐度异常，2017 年实施的捕捞禁令不足以在未来几年重建亚速海梭鲈种群的种群。