We reviewed the use of survey-based pre-recruit abundance indices in short-term recruitment forecasts for fish species relying on coastal habitats at the juvenile stage and that are assessed by ICES. We collated information from stock assessment reports and from a questionnaire filled out by the stock assessors. Among the 78 stocks with juvenile coastal dependence, 49 use short-term forecasts in stock assessment. Survey-based pre-recruit abundance indices were available for 35 of these stocks, but only 14 were used to forecast recruitment. The questionnaire indicated that the limited use of survey-based pre-recruit abundance indices was primarily due to sampling inefficiency, which may preclude reliable recruitment estimates. The sampling is inefficient because the juvenile coastal distribution is outside the geographical area covered by large-scale surveys or targeted coastal surveys are conducted on limited spatial and temporal scales. However, our analysis of the relationship between survey-based pre-recruit indices and assessment-generated recruitment indices revealed that survey-based pre-recruit abundance indices were sufficiently accurate to provide useful information for predicting future recruitment. We recommend expansion of the use of survey-based indices of pre-recruit abundance in stock assessment and recruitment forecasting, and consideration of how to include juveniles in ongoing and future surveys.

中文翻译：

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基于调查的征募前人员丰度指数的使用和性能可能纳入沿海依赖物种的种群评估中

我们回顾了在幼年期依赖沿海生境并由ICES评估的鱼类的短期招聘预测中，基于调查的征募前丰度指数的使用。我们从库存评估报告和库存评估员填写的调查表中整理信息。在78个有少年沿海依赖的种群中，有49个在种群评估中使用了短期预测。其中有35种股票有基于调查的招聘前丰富度指数，但只有14种用于预测招聘。问卷调查表表明，基于调查的应聘者丰度指数使用有限，主要是由于抽样效率低下，这可能排除了可靠的招聘估计数。采样效率低下，因为未成年人的沿海分布不在大规模调查所涵盖的地理区域内，或者针对性的沿海调查是在有限的时空尺度上进行的。但是，我们对基于调查的招聘前指标与评估生成的招聘指标之间的关系的分析表明，基于调查的招聘前丰富度指标足够准确，可以为预测未来的招聘提供有用的信息。我们建议在存量评估和招聘预测中扩大使用基于调查的招募前人员数量指数，并考虑如何将未成年人纳入正在进行的和将来的调查中。我们对基于调查的招聘前指数与评估生成的招聘指数之间的关系的分析表明，基于调查的招聘前丰富度指数足够准确，可以为预测未来的招聘提供有用的信息。我们建议在存量评估和招聘预测中扩大使用基于调查的招募前人员数量指数，并考虑如何将未成年人纳入正在进行的和将来的调查中。我们对基于调查的招聘前指数与评估生成的招聘指数之间的关系的分析表明，基于调查的招聘前丰富度指数足够准确，可以为预测未来的招聘提供有用的信息。我们建议在存量评估和招聘预测中扩大使用基于调查的招募前人员数量指标，并考虑如何将青少年纳入正在进行的和将来的调查中。