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A minimalistic approach for evapotranspiration estimation using the Prophet model
Hydrological Sciences Journal ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-13 , DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1787416
A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman 1 , Takahiro Hosono 2, 3 , Ozgur Kisi 4, 5 , Boateng Dennis 1 , A. H. M. Rahmatullah Imon 6
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the recently introduced Prophet model for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ETo). A comparative study was conducted for benchmarking the model results with support vector regression (SVR) and temperature-based empirical models (Thornthwaite and Hargreaves) in southern Japan. The performance of the Prophet, SVR and temperature-based empirical models was evaluated by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results indicate that temperature-based Prophet and SVR models have greater accuracy than the empirical models. The Prophet model with sole input of relative humidity, sunshine hours or windspeed showed acceptable accuracy (NSE > 0.80; R2 > 0.80), while SVR models with similar inputs showed greater errors. Accuracy improved with increasing number of input parameters, giving excellent performance (NSE > 0.95; R2 > 0.95) with all input parameters. Hence, the Prophet model is a new promising approach for modelling ETo with limited input variables.

中文翻译:

使用 Prophet 模型估算蒸散量的简约方法

摘要 本研究旨在评估最近引入的 Prophet 模型在估算参考蒸散量 (ETo) 方面的潜力。在日本南部进行了一项比较研究,以使用支持向量回归 (SVR) 和基于温度的经验模型(Thornthwaite 和 Hargreaves)对模型结果进行基准测试。Prophet、SVR 和基于温度的经验模型的性能通过 Nash-Sutcliffe 效率 (NSE) 和决定系数 (R2) 进行评估。结果表明,基于温度的 Prophet 和 SVR 模型比经验模型具有更高的准确性。仅输入相对湿度、日照时数或风速的 Prophet 模型显示出可接受的精度(NSE > 0.80;R2 > 0.80),而具有类似输入的 SVR 模型显示出更大的误差。精度随着输入参数数量的增加而提高,在所有输入参数下都具有出色的性能(NSE > 0.95;R2 > 0.95)。因此,Prophet 模型是一种新的有前途的方法,用于对输入变量有限的 ETo 进行建模。
更新日期:2020-07-13
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