Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and coresidence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries’ populations to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries’ vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.

基于来自81个国家的统一人口普查数据，我们估计年龄和共识模式如何塑造国家人口对2019年冠状病毒疾病暴发的脆弱性（COVID-19）。我们估计由于模拟随机感染居住在私人家庭中的人口的10％以及随后家庭内部传播病毒而导致的死亡差异。欧洲和北美国家的年龄结构通常使他们更容易遭受与COVID相关的死亡。非洲和亚洲部分地区的老年人的共有证据模式使这些国家更容易遭受家庭内传播COVID-19导致的死亡。在其他所有方面，人口老龄化和代际信任水平较高的南欧国家，最容易爆发COVID-19。在第二步中，我们估计在特定程度上避免针对特定年龄组的初次感染将防止由于家庭内部传播病毒而导致的后续死亡。在家庭较小且代际信任度较低的国家（例如法国）中，防止老年人中的原发性感染最为有效，而在年龄较大且具有代际家庭的国家（例如孟加拉国）中，限制年龄较小的人群可能会产生更大的影响。