The Drake equation has been used many times to estimate the number of observable civilizations in the galaxy. However, the uncertainty of the outcome is so great that any individual result is of limited use, as predictions can range from a handful of observable civilizations in the observable universe to tens of millions per Milky Way-sized galaxy. A statistical investigation shows that the Drake equation, despite its uncertainties, delivers robust predictions of the likelihood that the prevalent form of intelligence in the universe is artificial rather than biological. The likelihood of artificial intelligence far exceeds the likelihood of biological intelligence in all cases investigated. This conclusion is contingent upon a limited number of plausible assumptions. The significance of this outcome for the Fermi paradox is discussed.

中文翻译：

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宇宙中的人工智能与生物智能：德雷克方程随机分析的线索

德雷克方程已被多次用于估计银河系中可观测文明的数量。然而，结果的不确定性如此之大，以至于任何单个结果的用处都有限，因为预测范围可以从可观测宇宙中的少数可观测文明到每个银河系大小的星系数千万。一项统计调查表明，尽管德雷克方程存在不确定性，但它对宇宙中普遍存在的智能形式是人工而非生物的可能性提供了可靠的预测。在所有调查的案例中，人工智能的可能性远远超过生物智能的可能性。这一结论取决于有限数量的合理假设。讨论了这一结果对费米悖论的重要性。