当前位置: X-MOL 学术Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Predicting mortality from 57 economic, behavioral, social, and psychological factors.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-14 , DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1918455117
Eli Puterman 1 , Jordan Weiss 2 , Benjamin A Hives 3 , Alison Gemmill 4 , Deborah Karasek 5 , Wendy Berry Mendes 6 , David H Rehkopf 7
Affiliation  

Behavioral and social scientists have identified many nonbiological predictors of mortality. An important limitation of much of this research, however, is that risk factors are not studied in comparison with one another or from across different fields of research. It therefore remains unclear which factors should be prioritized for interventions and policy to reduce mortality risk. In the current investigation, we compare 57 factors within a multidisciplinary framework. These include (i) adverse socioeconomic and psychosocial experiences during childhood and (ii) socioeconomic conditions, (iii) health behaviors, (iv) social connections, (v) psychological characteristics, and (vi) adverse experiences during adulthood. The current prospective cohort investigation with 13,611 adults from 52 to 104 y of age (mean age 69.3 y) from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study used weighted traditional (i.e., multivariate Cox regressions) and machine-learning (i.e., lasso, random forest analysis) statistical approaches to identify the leading predictors of mortality over 6 y of follow-up time. We demonstrate that, in addition to the well-established behavioral risk factors of smoking, alcohol abuse, and lack of physical activity, economic (e.g., recent financial difficulties, unemployment history), social (e.g., childhood adversity, divorce history), and psychological (e.g., negative affectivity) factors were also among the strongest predictors of mortality among older American adults. The strength of these predictors should be used to guide future transdisciplinary investigations and intervention studies across the fields of epidemiology, psychology, sociology, economics, and medicine to understand how changes in these factors alter individual mortality risk.



中文翻译:

根据57个经济,行为,社会和心理因素预测死亡率。

行为和社会科学家已经确定了许多非生物的死亡率预测因子。但是,这项研究的一个重要局限性是,没有相互比较或跨不同研究领域来研究危险因素。因此,尚不清楚哪些因素应优先用于降低死亡率风险的干预措施和政策。在当前的调查中,我们在一个多学科框架内比较了57个因素。其中包括(i)童年时期不良的社会经济和心理经历,以及(ii)社会经济状况,(iii)健康行为,(iv)社会关系,(v)心理特征,以及(vi)成年期间的不良经历。当前的前瞻性队列研究来自全国代表性的健康与退休研究,研究对象为13,611名52至104岁(平均年龄69.3岁)的成年人,使用加权传统(即多元Cox回归)和机器学习(即套索,随机森林)分析)统计方法,以确定随访期6年内死亡率的主要预测指标。我们证明,除了公认的吸烟,酗酒和缺乏体育活动的行为风险因素之外,经济(例如,最近的财务困难,失业史),社会(例如,儿童时期的逆境,离婚史)和心理因素(例如负面情感)也是美国老年人死亡的最强预测指标之一。

更新日期:2020-07-14
down
wechat
bug