Abstract Hybridization affects the evolution and conservation status of species and populations. Because the dynamics of hybridization is driven by reproduction and survival of parental and admixed individuals, demographic modelling is a valuable tool to assess the effects of hybridization on population viability, e.g., under different management scenarios. While matrix models have been used to assess the long-term consequences of hybridization between crops and wild plants, to our knowledge they have not been developed for animal species. Here, we present a new matrix population model to project population dynamics in a system with two parental species or populations that interbreed. We consider the dynamics of males and females of the two parental groups as separate components, each described by species-specific vectors of initial abundance and projection matrices. Then we model hybridization as the production of hybrid fertile offspring due to the interaction of reproductive individuals of different parental species. Finally, we apply the model to two real-world case studies regarding a terrestrial and a marine mammal species in the presence of hybridization. Specifically, we investigate 1) the genomic extinction probability of two interbreeding dolphin species within a semi-enclosed gulf in Greece, under different hybrids’ fitness scenarios, 2) the possible outcomes of wolf x dog hybridization events for an expanding wolf population in Italy, under different reproductive isolation scenarios, 3) the sensitivity of the probability of genomic extinction to the main demographic parameters in the two case studies.

中文翻译：

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通过矩阵建模方法评估杂交动态

摘要 杂交影响物种和种群的进化和保护状况。因为杂交的动态是由亲本和混合个体的繁殖和存活驱动的，人口模型是评估杂交对种群生存力影响的有价值的工具，例如，在不同的管理方案下。虽然矩阵模型已被用于评估作物和野生植物之间杂交的长期后果，但据我们所知，它们尚未针对动物物种开发。在这里，我们提出了一个新的矩阵种群模型，以在具有两个亲本物种或杂交种群的系统中预测种群动态。我们将两个父母群体的男性和女性的动态视为独立的组成部分，每个都由初始丰度和投影矩阵的物种特异性向量描述。然后，我们将杂交建模为由于不同亲本物种的繁殖个体的相互作用而产生杂交可育后代。最后，我们将该模型应用于两个真实世界的案例研究，这些案例研究关于存在杂交的陆地和海洋哺乳动物物种。具体来说，我们调查了 1) 在希腊半封闭海湾内两种杂交海豚物种在不同杂交种的健康情况下的基因组灭绝概率，2) 狼 x 狗杂交事件对意大利不断扩大的狼种群的可能结果，在不同的生殖隔离情景下，3) 基因组灭绝概率对两个案例研究中主要人口统计参数的敏感性。