The aim of the present work is to scrutinize the relationship between dominant monsoon modes and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on a daily time scale based on the observation and P1-P4 lead forecasts of the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) model during 2001–2014. Daily monsoon modes have been obtained by performing multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on precipitation anomalies. The modes consist of 42-day oscillatory mode [reconstructed component RC(1, 2)] and a seasonally persistent mode [RC3]. It has been found that the P1 lead forecast of the model is able to simulate accurately the strong contribution of RC3 to the seasonal mean precipitation anomaly on a daily time scale during the weak (normal) monsoon year of 2002 (2010). It has also been observed that the seasonal mean precipitation anomaly and the contribution of RC3 on it are decreased from the P2 lead onwards. The observed phase composites pattern of SST anomalies corresponding to the active and break spells of the summer monsoon reveals a 42-day oscillation of the SST anomalies over the northern part of the Indian and western Pacific Oceans (clearly exhibits the northeastward propagation of the SST anomalies), and it is well captured by the P1 lead forecast. The RC3 shows the strong correlation with the equatorial Pacific Ocean and moderate correlation with the Indian and Atlantic Oceans for a long lead-lag time range. The co-variability of the Indian, Pacific, and the Atlantic Oceans on the long lead-lag time range has been observed in a single mode.

本工作的目的是根据气候预报系统版本2（CFSv2）模型在观测期间的观测值和P1-P4超前预报，在每日时间尺度上仔细检查主导性季风模式与海表温度（SST）异常之间的关系。 2001–2014。通过对降水异常进行多通道奇异谱分析（MSSA），可以获得每日季风模式。模式包括42天振荡模式[重构分量RC（1，2）]和季节性持续模式[RC3]。已经发现，该模型的P1超前预报能够在2002年弱（正常）季风年（2010年）的每日时间尺度上准确模拟RC3对季节平均降水异常的强烈贡献。还已经观察到，从P2铅开始，季节性平均降水距平和RC3对其的贡献减小了。观测到的对应于夏季季风活跃期和断裂期的SST异常的相复合模式显示了印度洋和西太平洋北部SST异常的42天振荡（显然显示了SST异常的东北传播），并且P1潜在客户预测可以很好地捕获它。在较长的铅滞后时间范围内，RC3与赤道太平洋具有很强的相关性，而与印度洋和大西洋具有中度的相关性。在单一模式下，已经观察到印度洋，太平洋和大西洋在超长滞后时间范围内的协变性。观测到的对应于夏季季风活跃期和断裂期的SST异常的相复合模式显示了印度洋和西太平洋北部SST异常的42天振荡（显然显示了SST异常的东北传播），并且P1潜在客户预测可以很好地捕获它。在较长的铅滞后时间范围内，RC3与赤道太平洋具有很强的相关性，而与印度洋和大西洋具有中度的相关性。在单一模式下，已经观察到印度洋，太平洋和大西洋在超长滞后时间范围内的协变性。观测到的对应于夏季季风活跃期和断裂期的SST异常的相复合模式显示了印度洋和西太平洋北部SST异常的42天振荡（显然显示了SST异常的东北传播），并且P1潜在客户预测可以很好地捕获它。在较长的铅滞后时间范围内，RC3与赤道太平洋具有很强的相关性，而与印度洋和大西洋具有中度的相关性。在单一模式下，已经观察到印度洋，太平洋和大西洋在超前滞后时间范围内的协变性。