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The impact of high temperatures and extreme heat to delays on the London Underground rail network: An empirical study
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-22 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1910
Sarah Greenham 1 , Emma Ferranti 2 , Andrew Quinn 1 , Katherine Drayson 3
Affiliation  

Rail infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, resulting in damage and delays to networks. The impact of heat is a major concern for the London Underground (LU) by Transport for London (TfL) both now and in future, but existing studies are limited to passenger comfort on the deep tube and do not focus on infrastructure or the vast majority of the network, which is in fact above ground. For the first time, the present empirical study examines quantitatively the statistical relationship between LU delays (by synthesizing 2011–2016 industry data) with air temperature data (from Met Office archives). A range of testing shows strong statistical relationships between most delay variables and high temperatures, though not causality. Relationships were found between high temperatures and delays associated with different asset classes on different LU lines. Track‐related delays, often the focus of high‐temperature research (i.e. track buckling), show a relationship, although this is small relative to delays caused by other assets. Using UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) and assuming a similar future performance indicates that the share of annual delays owed to temperatures > 24°C may increase in frequency and length, depending on the emissions scenario. Recommendations include extending the analysis to the LU asset scale and considering the local environment to understand failure causality in order to mitigate future heat risk. A review of how TfL and other infrastructure operators capture delays for future analysis is necessary to facilitate climate resilience benchmarking between networks.

中文翻译:

高温和极端高温对伦敦地铁网络延误的影响:一项实证研究

铁路基础设施容易受到极端天气事件的影响,从而导致网络损坏和延误。无论现在还是将来,热量的影响都是伦敦交通运输公司(TfL)对伦敦地铁(LU)的主要关注,但是现有研究仅限于深层管道的乘客舒适度,而不关注基础设施或绝大多数网络,实际上是在地面之上。本实证研究首次定量研究了LU延误(通过综合2011-2016年行业数据)与气温数据(来自Met Office档案馆)之间的统计关系。一系列测试表明,大多数延迟变量与高温之间具有很强的统计关系,尽管不是因果关系。发现高温和与不同LU线上不同资产类别相关的延迟之间的关系。轨道相关的延误通常是高温研究的重点(即轨道屈曲)显示出一种关系,尽管相对于其他资产造成的延误而言,这种关系很小。使用英国《 2009年气候预测》(UKCP09)并假设类似的未来表现,表明由于温度> 24°C而导致的年度延误的比例可能会在频率和长度上增加,具体取决于排放情景。建议包括将分析扩展到LU资产规模,并考虑当地环境以了解故障原因,以减轻未来的热风险。
更新日期:2020-06-22
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