The fast‐growing offshore wind energy sector brings opportunities to provide a sustainable energy resource but also challenges in offshore wind turbine (OWT) operation and maintenance management. Existing operational simulation models assume deterministic input reliability and failure cost data, whereas OWT reliability and failure costs vary depending on several factors, and it is often not possible to specify them with certainty. This paper focuses on modelling reliability and failure cost uncertainties and their impacts on OWT operational and economic performance. First, we present a probabilistic method for modelling reliability data uncertainty with a quantitative parameter estimation from available reliability data resources. Then, failure cost uncertainty is modelled using fuzzy logic that relates a component's failure cost to its capital cost and downtime. A time‐sequential Monte Carlo simulation is presented to simulate operational sequences of OWT components. This operation profile is later fed into a fuzzy cost assessment and coupled with a wind power curve model to evaluate OWT availability, energy production, operational expenditures and levelised cost of energy. A case study with different sets of reliability data is presented, and the results show that impacts of uncertainty on OWT performance are magnified in databases with low components' reliability. In addition, both reliability and cost uncertainties can contribute to more than 10% of the cost of energy variation. This research can provide practitioners with methods to handle data uncertainties in reliability and operational simulation of OWTs and help them to quantify the variability and dependence of wind power performance on data uncertainties.

中文翻译：

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不确定性条件下的海上风机可靠性和运行模拟

快速发展的海上风能行业为提供可持续的能源资源带来了机遇，同时也给海上风轮机（OWT）的运行和维护管理带来了挑战。现有的操作仿真模型假定输入的可靠性和故障成本为确定性数据，而OWT的可靠性和故障成本取决于多个因素，因此通常无法确定性地指定它们。本文着重于对可靠性和故障成本不确定性及其对OWT运营和经济绩效的影响进行建模。首先，我们提出了一种概率方法，用于对可靠性数据不确定性进行建模，并使用来自可用可靠性数据资源的定量参数进行估算。然后，使用与组件'相关的模糊逻辑对故障成本不确定性进行建模 的失败成本将导致其资本成本和停机时间。提出了时间顺序蒙特卡罗模拟，以模拟OWT组件的操作顺序。该运行配置文件随后被输入到模糊成本评估中，并与风能曲线模型结合以评估OWT的可用性，能源生产，运营支出和能源的平准化成本。给出了一组具有不同可靠性数据的案例研究，结果表明，不确定性对OWT性能的影响在组件可靠性较低的数据库中得到了放大。此外，可靠性和成本不确定性都可能占能源变化成本的10％以上。