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Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851‐2018)
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-16 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6719
Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano 1 , Fernando Domínguez‐Castro 2 , Conor Murphy 3 , Jamie Hannaford 3, 4 , Fergus Reig 1 , Dhais Peña‐Angulo 1 , Yves Tramblay 5 , Ricardo M. Trigo 6 , Neil Mac Donald 7 , M. Yolanda Luna 8 , Mark Mc Carthy 9 , Gerard Van der Schrier 10 , Marco Turco 11 , Dario Camuffo 12 , Ivan Noguera 1 , Ricardo García‐Herrera 13, 14 , Francesca Becherini 12, 15 , Antonio Della Valle 12 , Miquel Tomas‐Burguera 16 , Ahmed El Kenawy 17, 18
Affiliation  

We analyzed long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851-2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI-3 and SPI-12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and severity. Results reveal a general absence of statistically significant long-term trends in the study domain, with the exception of significant trends at some stations, generally covering short periods. The largest decreasing trends in SPI-3 (i.e. increasing drought conditions) were found for summer in the British and Irish Isles. In general, drought episodes experienced in the last two or three decades have precedents during the last 170 years, emphasising the importance of long records for assessing change. The main characteristic of drought variability in Western Europe is its strong spatial diversity, with regions exhibiting a homogeneous temporal evolution. Notably, the temporal variability of drought in Western Europe is more dominant than long-term trends. This suggests that long-term drought trends cannot be confirmed in Western Europe using precipitation records alone. This study provides a long-term regional assessment of drought variability in Western Europe, which can contribute to better understanding of regional climate change during the past two centuries.

中文翻译:

西欧气象干旱的长期变化和趋势(1851-2018)

我们使用标准化降水指数 (SPI) 分析了西欧气象干旱的长期变化和趋势。使用来自 1851-2018 年期间 199 个站点的降水数据,在均质化之后,推导出每个站点的 SPI-3 和 SPI-12 系列,以及干旱持续时间和严重程度的指数。结果表明,研究领域普遍缺乏统计上显着的长期趋势,但某些站点的显着趋势除外,通常涵盖短期。在不列颠和爱尔兰群岛的夏季发现了 SPI-3 的最大下降趋势(即干旱条件增加)。总的来说,过去两三年经历的干旱事件在过去 170 年中都有先例,强调长期记录对评估变化的重要性。西欧干旱变异的主要特征是其强烈的空间多样性,各地区表现出同质的时间演变。值得注意的是,西欧干旱的时间变化比长期趋势更具主导性。这表明仅使用降水记录无法确认西欧的长期干旱趋势。这项研究提供了西欧干旱变异的长期区域评估,有助于更好地了解过去两个世纪的区域气候变化。西欧干旱的时间变化比长期趋势更具主导性。这表明仅使用降水记录无法确认西欧的长期干旱趋势。这项研究提供了西欧干旱变异的长期区域评估,有助于更好地了解过去两个世纪的区域气候变化。西欧干旱的时间变化比长期趋势更具主导性。这表明仅使用降水记录无法确认西欧的长期干旱趋势。这项研究提供了西欧干旱变异的长期区域评估,有助于更好地了解过去两个世纪的区域气候变化。
更新日期:2020-07-16
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